NBA games

CLE @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
115–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE32293222115
CHI22232837110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHI
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 36 7 9
Evan Mobley S 36 26 14 3
Jaylon Tyson S 23 18 11 3
Sam Merrill S 31 13 1 3
Dennis Schroder 16 9 2 3
Keon Ellis 27 8 2 3
Thomas Bryant 16 5 4 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 11 0 0 0
Max Strus 24 0 6 1
Dean Wade S 19 0 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 32 20 4 3
Rob Dillingham 21 17 4 1
Nick Richards S 30 16 8 0
Matas Buzelis S 33 13 5 0
Leonard Miller 19 10 4 0
Guerschon Yabusele 29 10 11 1
Josh Giddey S 37 9 6 19
Collin Sexton S 19 9 4 2
Patrick Williams 20 6 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Sexton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Collin Sexton makes running layup (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Matas Buzelis CHI
15%
2 Tre Jones CHI
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
6 Sam Merrill CLE
9%
7 James Harden CLE
9%
8 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
9 Leonard Miller CHI
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
23%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden CLE 22.9 4.9 7.5
2 Matas Buzelis CHI 22.1 6.9 2.8
3 Evan Mobley CLE 21.6 10.4 2.7
4 Josh Giddey CHI 18.3 8.7 10.0
5 Tre Jones CHI 17.5 3.8 4.9
6 Collin Sexton CHI 15.8 2.3 2.8
7 Jalen Smith CHI 12.0 6.0 1.5
8 Sam Merrill CLE 11.8 3.1 2.3
9 Leonard Miller CHI 11.7 5.9 1.5
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.9 3.8 2.1
11 Dennis Schroder CLE 10.7 2.7 5.0
12 Nick Richards CHI 10.5 8.2 1.2
13 Keon Ellis CLE 10.0 3.7 1.6
14 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.0 4.5 1.9
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.2 2.5 1.6
16 Rob Dillingham CHI 9.1 2.8 3.5
17 Patrick Williams CHI 8.5 2.9 2.0
18 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.9 3.5 0.8
19 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 4.2 1.5
20 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 2.9 1.4 0.4
21 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.8 1.9 0.6
22 Riley Minix CLE 2.7 1.3 0.9
23 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.