NBA games

LAL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
134–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29303837134
MIA42232338126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 60 7 3
LeBron James S 38 19 15 10
Austin Reaves S 40 18 5 4
Marcus Smart S 28 13 2 4
Rui Hachimura 18 7 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 19 6 5 1
Deandre Ayton S 29 6 4 0
Jake LaRavia 18 5 6 1
Luke Kennard 13 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 38 28 10 2
Tyler Herro S 33 21 8 5
Norman Powell 33 20 2 3
Davion Mitchell S 32 16 3 6
Kel'el Ware 21 14 9 1
Pelle Larsson S 33 11 2 5
Simone Fontecchio S 19 7 3 2
Kasparas Jakucionis 16 7 2 3
Dru Smith 16 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
3 Pelle Larsson MIA
9%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
5 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
6 Norman Powell MIA
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
8%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
10 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
22%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.5 8.5 8.5
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 26.6 9.3 3.4
3 LeBron James LAL 22.8 6.0 6.1
4 Tyler Herro MIA 22.1 4.9 5.7
5 Austin Reaves LAL 22.0 4.5 6.0
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.5 4.3 5.7
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.3 5.4 2.4
8 Norman Powell MIA 15.8 3.4 2.7
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 14.1 3.6 3.6
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.8 9.2 1.2
11 Marcus Smart LAL 10.5 3.0 2.7
12 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.4 8.0 1.2
13 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.2 3.1 1.2
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.1 3.1 4.4
15 Luke Kennard LAL 7.9 2.2 1.9
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.5 3.0 2.2
17 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.1 2.2 1.1
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 4.5 1.0
19 Dru Smith MIA 5.1 2.6 1.8
20 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.0 3.2 1.5
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.9 1.9 0.6
22 Myron Gardner MIA 3.5 2.9 1.0
23 Nikola Jovic MIA 3.0 1.6 0.6
24 Drew Timme LAL 2.9 1.3 0.5
25 Bronny James LAL 2.7 0.7 0.9
26 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.5 1.1 0.4
27 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 2.1 2.2 0.6
28 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.8 0.9 0.3
29 Adou Thiero LAL 1.7 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.