NBA games

DET @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
117–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET35252829117
WSH1438261795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home WSH
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 25 24 11 0
Paul Reed 21 17 4 3
Kevin Huerter 23 14 5 2
Duncan Robinson S 27 14 5 2
Caris LeVert 20 14 5 6
Ausar Thompson S 24 10 9 3
Daniss Jenkins S 34 9 2 5
Tobias Harris S 22 7 7 5
Marcus Sasser 14 2 1 5
Ronald Holland II 20 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan Vukcevic 18 21 4 1
Will Riley S 40 15 3 1
Sharife Cooper S 27 13 7 2
Jaden Hardy 25 13 0 2
Tre Johnson S 24 12 1 2
Bub Carrington S 35 10 6 4
Jamir Watkins 27 9 6 3
Alex Sarr S 21 2 3 2
Anthony Gill 24 0 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Tobias Harris DET
10%
3 Trae Young WSH
9%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
5 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Will Riley WSH
8%
8 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
9 Anthony Gill WSH
7%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
15%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 22.8 11.1 1.8
2 Trae Young WSH 20.2 2.6 7.8
3 Will Riley WSH 16.0 3.6 2.6
4 Alex Sarr WSH 15.2 7.7 2.1
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.0 4.5 2.8
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.4 5.2 2.2
7 Bub Carrington WSH 12.0 3.2 3.9
8 Tre Johnson WSH 11.0 3.2 1.7
9 Jaden Hardy WSH 10.9 2.4 1.4
10 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.4 4.7 1.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.3 5.5 4.0
12 Duncan Robinson DET 9.9 3.1 2.6
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.7 4.4 1.6
14 Ronald Holland II DET 9.6 3.7 1.2
15 Jamir Watkins WSH 9.4 3.0 1.9
16 Javonte Green DET 7.7 3.0 1.0
17 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.7 2.5 3.8
18 Anthony Gill WSH 7.0 3.5 1.8
19 Kevin Huerter DET 6.8 3.2 1.9
20 Caris LeVert DET 6.8 2.4 2.0
21 Marcus Sasser DET 6.6 1.8 1.9
22 Sharife Cooper WSH 6.3 1.6 2.3
23 Paul Reed DET 5.4 4.6 0.7
24 Tolu Smith DET 3.7 3.3 0.6
25 Chaz Lanier DET 2.4 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.