NBA games

ORL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
111–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32212434111
CHA34383820130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHA
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 26 24 7 2
Paolo Banchero S 28 20 3 7
Jamal Cain 18 15 1 1
Jevon Carter 19 11 4 3
Jalen Suggs S 22 9 0 1
Noah Penda 21 8 2 2
Moritz Wagner 19 5 1 1
Jett Howard 16 5 1 0
Goga Bitadze S 19 4 2 1
Tristan da Silva S 22 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White 23 27 3 5
Brandon Miller S 28 25 4 8
LaMelo Ball S 20 20 6 5
Kon Knueppel S 25 17 6 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner 24 13 5 0
Miles Bridges S 23 11 3 0
Sion James 22 6 3 4
Josh Green 18 5 3 0
Moussa Diabate S 24 3 5 1
Tre Mann 7 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
17%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
10%
5 Tristan da Silva ORL
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
7 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
8 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
10 Goga Bitadze ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
6%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.4 9.4 5.1
2 Desmond Bane ORL 21.8 3.9 4.7
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.6 4.9 6.4
4 Brandon Miller CHA 20.1 6.6 4.0
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.7 4.5 2.9
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.6 4.2 5.6
7 Miles Bridges CHA 15.2 4.9 3.0
8 Coby White CHA 14.9 3.6 3.4
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 14.0 5.5 2.4
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.4 9.1 2.8
11 Jevon Carter ORL 7.5 2.5 2.5
12 Grant Williams CHA 7.3 3.4 2.0
13 Jett Howard ORL 6.8 2.9 1.1
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.5 4.3 0.9
15 Sion James CHA 5.5 3.1 1.4
16 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.4 3.8 0.8
17 Josh Green CHA 5.0 1.8 1.0
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.1 3.0 0.8
19 Noah Penda ORL 3.9 3.1 1.1
20 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.7 1.7 0.6
21 Tre Mann CHA 3.5 1.4 1.0
22 Jamal Cain ORL 3.5 1.6 0.6
23 Jase Richardson ORL 2.7 1.0 0.9
24 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.3 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.