NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
124–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL35322235124
HOU26293724116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 40 9 10
LeBron James S 34 30 5 2
Deandre Ayton S 34 16 4 2
Austin Reaves S 39 14 3 8
Rui Hachimura 21 8 3 0
Luke Kennard 18 5 1 1
Marcus Smart S 34 5 3 4
Jake LaRavia 10 5 3 2
Jaxson Hayes 14 1 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 37 27 4 10
Amen Thompson S 42 26 11 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 18 5 4
Kevin Durant S 38 18 6 4
Reed Sheppard 27 11 2 3
Tari Eason S 32 10 6 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 10 3 2 0
Josh Okogie 14 3 2 0
Clint Capela 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"LeBron James makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
12%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
8 Clint Capela HOU
7%
9 Kevin Durant HOU
7%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
37%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 28.7 8.1 7.9
2 Kevin Durant HOU 26.0 6.4 4.2
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.5 8.3 5.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.9 4.3 5.5
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.9 8.8 5.4
6 LeBron James LAL 20.7 5.5 6.0
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 17.4 4.3 5.0
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.0 5.6 2.1
9 Marcus Smart LAL 10.4 2.7 2.7
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.0 2.8 1.1
11 Deandre Ayton LAL 9.2 7.4 1.0
12 Luke Kennard LAL 9.0 2.3 1.8
13 Tari Eason HOU 7.9 6.3 1.9
14 Clint Capela HOU 6.0 5.9 1.3
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.9 3.0 1.6
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 3.8 0.9
17 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.5 2.9 1.5
18 Josh Okogie HOU 4.0 1.6 1.0
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.1 1.0 0.7
20 Bronny James LAL 2.6 0.6 0.8
21 Jeff Green HOU 2.5 0.9 0.4
22 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.4 1.0 0.4
23 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 2.1 2.1 0.5
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.7 0.9 0.3
25 Isaiah Crawford HOU 1.6 1.0 0.4
26 Adou Thiero LAL 1.6 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.