NBA games

ATL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
135–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL37303434135
DAL30262638120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DAL
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 28 24 0 7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 30 22 1 2
Dyson Daniels S 32 19 6 4
Jalen Johnson S 37 17 11 9
Jonathan Kuminga 18 16 5 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 12 9 4
Corey Kispert 13 10 3 0
Zaccharie Risacher 16 5 6 1
Jock Landale 19 5 1 5
Gabe Vincent 11 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford 22 24 8 0
P.J. Washington S 30 23 9 1
Klay Thompson 22 17 0 1
Cooper Flagg S 33 17 6 5
Max Christie S 30 13 2 1
Ryan Nembhard S 27 8 2 12
Khris Middleton 19 7 6 0
Naji Marshall S 28 4 3 4
AJ Johnson 10 3 0 2
Dwight Powell 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 CJ McCollum ATL
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Max Christie DAL
8%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
14%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.7 3.6 4.6
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.7 9.8 8.6
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 20.6 6.8 5.8
4 CJ McCollum ATL 19.5 4.4 4.7
5 Naji Marshall DAL 17.5 4.5 4.2
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.3 8.3 3.5
7 P.J. Washington DAL 13.2 6.1 2.0
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.4 7.7 5.9
9 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 11.9 6.3 2.6
10 Khris Middleton DAL 11.6 3.3 2.4
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.2 7.9 1.3
12 Max Christie DAL 9.7 3.1 1.6
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.3 1.8 1.3
14 Buddy Hield ATL 9.3 2.8 1.9
15 Marvin Bagley III DAL 9.0 7.0 1.3
16 Corey Kispert ATL 9.0 2.4 1.6
17 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.5 4.7 1.5
18 Jock Landale ATL 8.2 3.2 1.4
19 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.7 2.2 3.6
20 Caleb Martin DAL 5.4 2.4 0.9
21 Dwight Powell DAL 4.9 4.5 1.1
22 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.8 1.4 1.5
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.9 3.3 0.7
24 AJ Johnson DAL 3.6 1.5 1.0
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.6 0.9 0.5
26 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.0 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.