NBA games

LAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
109124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC40202524109
NO26343628124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NO
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 25 8 1
John Collins S 24 18 7 2
Darius Garland S 29 13 1 6
Jordan Miller 23 13 3 1
Brook Lopez S 31 11 5 4
Isaiah Jackson 19 10 6 1
Kris Dunn 26 6 1 3
Cam Christie 5 4 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 4 2 3
Kobe Sanders 15 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 35 25 5 4
Trey Murphy III S 40 23 7 5
Dejounte Murray S 30 17 4 11
Derik Queen 19 14 2 2
Zion Williamson S 28 14 4 3
Jeremiah Fears 18 11 1 3
Karlo Matkovic 25 9 8 0
Herbert Jones S 26 7 3 3
Yves Missi 19 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"John Collins makes dunk (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
12%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
3 John Collins LAC
10%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Yves Missi NO
7%
9 Brook Lopez LAC
6%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
15%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.0 6.3 4.2
2 Darius Garland LAC 22.9 2.9 6.9
3 Dejounte Murray NO 22.5 5.9 5.9
4 Trey Murphy III NO 21.3 4.9 5.4
5 Zion Williamson NO 20.8 5.8 2.6
6 Saddiq Bey NO 20.5 5.4 3.2
7 John Collins LAC 15.1 6.6 1.7
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.4 4.0 3.8
9 Jordan Miller LAC 12.4 3.6 3.3
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.8 4.4 1.5
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.9 3.9 3.3
12 Brook Lopez LAC 10.3 4.2 1.7
13 Jordan Poole NO 9.3 3.2 2.4
14 Kris Dunn LAC 8.3 4.2 3.8
15 Derik Queen NO 8.3 5.0 2.7
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.6 5.3 1.4
17 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.2 2.2 1.5
18 Isaiah Jackson LAC 6.3 4.9 1.1
19 Yves Missi NO 5.8 5.7 1.1
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.9 1.8 1.5
21 Kevon Looney NO 4.3 6.0 1.2
22 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.0 5.7 0.6
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.0 1.3 0.7
24 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.5 0.6
25 Micah Peavy NO 2.3 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.