NBA games

UTAH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
111–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH31272627111
MIN43293837147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIN
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 37 41 4 3
Ace Bailey S 25 17 2 2
Isaiah Collier S 28 14 3 6
Elijah Harkless 20 8 6 3
Kyle Filipowski S 23 7 3 4
Cody Williams S 25 7 5 2
Kevin Love 15 5 4 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 10 5 4 0
Andersson Garcia 24 4 8 3
John Konchar 13 3 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 27 23 9 6
Julius Randle S 27 21 1 8
Rudy Gobert S 29 21 12 0
Bones Hyland 25 18 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 26 17 2 3
Jaylen Clark 10 9 2 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 9 3 7
Kyle Anderson 22 8 3 6
Terrence Shannon Jr. 20 8 3 0
Joe Ingles 7 7 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes layup (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Isaiah Collier UTAH
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
7 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
9 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
10 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
21%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 20.6 7.4 4.5
2 Isaiah Collier UTAH 19.5 3.3 6.3
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 17.3 3.6 2.8
4 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 15.8 8.5 4.1
5 Ace Bailey UTAH 15.0 4.5 1.9
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 13.4 3.5 2.6
7 Cody Williams UTAH 13.3 4.6 3.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.8 4.0 2.7
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.5 4.0 3.0
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 10.6 2.3
11 Elijah Harkless UTAH 9.2 2.4 2.9
12 Bones Hyland MIN 8.7 1.8 2.5
13 Andersson Garcia UTAH 7.7 6.9 1.7
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.0 1.9 1.2
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.7 3.7 1.8
16 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 5.3 4.5 0.7
17 John Konchar UTAH 5.2 3.7 1.7
18 Kevin Love UTAH 5.0 5.1 1.4
19 Zyon Pullin MIN 4.3 1.4 2.2
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.5 1.2 0.7
21 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.2 1.0 0.8
22 Mike Conley MIN 2.6 1.5 1.7
23 Joan Beringer MIN 2.4 1.6 0.4
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.2 1.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.