NBA games

NY @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
130–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY48312031130
MEM30322829119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MEM
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 40 25 13 3
Mikal Bridges S 36 24 2 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 20 11 11
Jose Alvarado S 32 15 4 4
Landry Shamet 31 13 3 1
Tyler Kolek 19 9 3 7
Jordan Clarkson 11 8 1 0
Ariel Hukporti 12 7 6 3
Josh Hart S 25 5 6 6
Mohamed Diawara 5 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 25 20 3 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 25 17 4 1
Cedric Coward S 28 15 0 0
Javon Small S 25 13 0 4
Adama Bal 23 11 2 2
Tyler Burton 19 10 3 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 23 10 1 5
Cam Spencer S 21 10 1 8
Jahmai Mashack 23 7 4 0
DeJon Jarreau 20 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jose Alvarado assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 GG Jackson MEM
11%
2 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
4 Josh Hart NY
9%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
6 Javon Small MEM
8%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
8 OG Anunoby NY
8%
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM
8%
10 Jahmai Mashack MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.4 12.3 4.0
2 OG Anunoby NY 18.8 4.6 2.9
3 GG Jackson MEM 18.0 4.4 2.3
4 Josh Hart NY 17.9 7.4 4.0
5 Javon Small MEM 14.6 4.0 4.6
6 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 14.0 4.3 1.5
7 Cedric Coward MEM 13.6 4.8 2.8
8 Mikal Bridges NY 12.3 3.7 3.4
9 Tyler Burton MEM 11.1 4.1 1.6
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.6 3.1 2.0
11 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.5 4.8 1.5
12 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.5 2.6 4.7
13 Cam Spencer MEM 9.6 2.3 5.0
14 Landry Shamet NY 9.5 2.1 1.3
15 Jahmai Mashack MEM 9.5 3.3 2.1
16 DeJon Jarreau MEM 9.1 4.7 3.6
17 Jose Alvarado NY 7.1 2.0 4.2
18 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.7 1.9 1.2
19 Tyler Kolek NY 4.1 1.5 1.9
20 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.9 1.7 0.9
21 Jeremy Sochan NY 3.8 2.3 0.7
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.5 2.1 0.8
23 Trey Jemison III NY 3.4 2.0 0.7
24 Dillon Jones NY 2.3 1.2 0.6
25 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.