NBA games

TOR @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
139–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR32403631139
CHI17283133109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CHI
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 27 23 4 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 21 18 4 1
Scottie Barnes S 25 18 7 3
Brandon Ingram S 29 18 5 4
Jakob Poeltl S 21 17 8 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 17 4 5
Immanuel Quickley S 26 10 2 7
Gradey Dick 10 7 0 1
Jamison Battle 22 6 2 1
Garrett Temple 7 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 31 19 7 1
Rob Dillingham 25 15 0 4
Collin Sexton 18 14 2 5
Leonard Miller S 27 13 4 0
Jalen Smith S 17 10 4 1
Josh Giddey S 27 9 0 3
Patrick Williams 26 7 5 0
Tre Jones S 24 6 2 5
Guerschon Yabusele 14 5 3 3
Yuki Kawamura 8 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
9 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
10 Leonard Miller CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
22%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.7 5.4 4.3
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.5 6.1 3.3
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 22.3 6.6 2.7
4 Josh Giddey CHI 18.6 8.9 9.1
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.0 5.4 4.4
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.6 3.4 6.2
7 Tre Jones CHI 17.1 3.8 4.1
8 Collin Sexton CHI 14.5 2.3 2.2
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.3 8.3 2.1
10 Jalen Smith CHI 11.5 6.1 1.4
11 Nick Richards CHI 10.6 8.1 1.1
12 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.4 5.5 1.7
13 Leonard Miller CHI 10.3 5.5 1.4
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.5 2.6 2.2
15 Rob Dillingham CHI 8.2 3.0 3.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.9 2.0 3.4
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 6.7 4.0 1.3
18 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.2 2.5 1.3
19 Gradey Dick TOR 4.0 1.3 0.6
20 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.0 2.0 2.7
21 Jamison Battle TOR 2.8 1.3 0.5
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.5 2.4 0.5
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.5 2.4 0.7
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.