NBA games

POR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
127–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR37422622127
IND33292433119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home IND
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 32 32 11 5
Donovan Clingan S 25 28 13 2
Toumani Camara S 30 17 2 1
Jrue Holiday S 32 15 3 8
Scoot Henderson 26 9 3 5
Jerami Grant S 32 8 3 1
Kris Murray 18 8 4 4
Matisse Thybulle 14 6 2 0
Sidy Cissoko 10 2 1 4
Robert Williams III 21 2 10 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 23 18 8 3
Jalen Slawson S 37 17 7 4
Aaron Nesmith S 26 15 3 1
Quenton Jackson 20 13 0 6
Jay Huff 21 11 2 1
Taelon Peter 13 10 3 1
Jarace Walker S 33 10 7 2
Ben Sheppard 19 10 1 1
Kobe Brown 20 8 2 1
T.J. McConnell S 20 7 5 10

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
2 Jarace Walker IND
10%
3 Ivica Zubac IND
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 T.J. McConnell IND
8%
6 Deni Avdija POR
8%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.4 4.4 3.5
2 Jrue Holiday POR 20.4 4.6 6.4
3 Jerami Grant POR 19.3 4.0 3.0
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.8 2.9 6.2
5 Jarace Walker IND 16.0 6.2 3.4
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.1 3.2 3.7
7 Deni Avdija POR 14.7 4.6 6.1
8 Donovan Clingan POR 14.0 11.4 3.0
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.3 3.3 1.7
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.3 5.2 2.8
11 Ivica Zubac IND 12.2 10.1 1.6
12 Jay Huff IND 12.2 4.6 1.5
13 Micah Potter IND 9.4 4.3 1.1
14 Kobe Brown IND 8.7 4.0 1.4
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 2.6 5.0
16 Quenton Jackson IND 8.3 2.8 2.9
17 Robert Williams III POR 8.0 8.6 1.0
18 Ben Sheppard IND 7.8 2.9 1.6
19 Kam Jones IND 7.8 2.6 4.7
20 Taelon Peter IND 7.3 2.3 1.8
21 Vit Krejci POR 6.3 3.3 1.8
22 Kris Murray POR 6.2 3.1 1.1
23 Jalen Slawson IND 5.7 3.8 1.7
24 Blake Wesley POR 4.8 1.4 1.6
25 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.8 2.2 1.1
26 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.7 2.0 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.