NBA games

OKC @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
121–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC28323130121
BKN1113313792

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home BKN
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain 29 26 3 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 26 20 3 6
Aaron Wiggins S 34 17 7 3
Isaiah Joe 23 13 3 4
Chet Holmgren S 22 11 2 1
Ajay Mitchell S 23 10 7 2
Kenrich Williams 21 9 4 2
Jaylin Williams 14 6 7 2
Cason Wallace S 28 6 3 3
Payton Sandfort 5 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Wilson 19 15 5 0
Nolan Traore S 27 13 3 6
Chaney Johnson 27 12 7 3
Ochai Agbaji 20 10 2 0
Tyson Etienne 15 9 1 0
Josh Minott 17 9 1 2
Danny Wolf S 23 6 4 2
Ziaire Williams 20 5 3 1
Nic Claxton S 23 4 6 1
E.J. Liddell 6 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes 1-foot running dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC
11%
5 Nolan Traore BKN
9%
6 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
7 Danny Wolf BKN
8%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Terance Mann BKN
8%
10 Drake Powell BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
10%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.6 4.9 9.0
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.4 10.3 2.4
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.6 4.2 3.9
4 Jaylin Williams OKC 14.1 7.1 3.2
5 Danny Wolf BKN 12.5 6.0 2.9
6 Cason Wallace OKC 10.9 3.5 3.8
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.5 3.3 1.4
8 Noah Clowney BKN 10.4 3.7 1.5
9 Nic Claxton BKN 10.3 6.4 3.1
10 Nolan Traore BKN 10.0 2.3 3.5
11 Jared McCain OKC 9.9 2.1 1.2
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.2 2.1 1.6
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.4 3.4 1.7
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.4 3.0 1.6
15 Terance Mann BKN 6.6 2.5 1.8
16 Drake Powell BKN 6.5 2.1 1.4
17 Chaney Johnson BKN 6.2 3.6 1.1
18 Ochai Agbaji BKN 6.0 2.3 1.0
19 Josh Minott BKN 4.8 1.6 0.7
20 Tyson Etienne BKN 4.8 1.4 1.0
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.4 2.2 0.8
22 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.8 2.3 0.8
23 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.7 1.2 0.5
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.2 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.