NBA games

GS @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
99–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2327232699
BOS36272631120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home BOS
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Payton II 21 14 6 4
Pat Spencer 20 14 1 2
Draymond Green S 32 13 5 5
Gui Santos S 28 13 5 0
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 11 5 2
Brandin Podziemski S 28 10 6 5
Will Richard 25 7 2 2
Quinten Post 21 6 5 3
De'Anthony Melton S 23 5 1 2
Omer Yurtseven 5 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 32 6 5
Jayson Tatum S 31 24 10 2
Payton Pritchard 31 19 0 7
Luka Garza 18 15 7 0
Derrick White S 31 11 6 1
Neemias Queta S 28 8 7 3
Sam Hauser S 21 6 0 0
Baylor Scheierman 25 3 8 3
Charles Bassey 2 2 1 0
Ron Harper Jr. 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 De'Anthony Melton GS
10%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Gui Santos GS
9%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Sam Hauser BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Quinten Post GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
8%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.7 7.4 6.7
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 22.7 7.9 4.9
3 Derrick White BOS 20.8 4.7 5.8
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.5 5.9 4.7
5 De'Anthony Melton GS 17.7 4.1 3.4
6 Gui Santos GS 16.7 5.7 4.7
7 Kristaps Porzingis GS 14.6 3.8 2.0
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.1 3.8 5.0
9 Gary Payton II GS 12.0 4.8 2.0
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.8 8.2 1.5
11 Draymond Green GS 10.4 5.2 5.6
12 Baylor Scheierman BOS 10.2 5.3 2.6
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.8 4.5 1.5
14 Pat Spencer GS 9.0 2.5 3.6
15 Quinten Post GS 8.6 5.0 1.7
16 Will Richard GS 7.3 3.2 1.5
17 Luka Garza BOS 6.3 3.0 1.2
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.1 4.1 1.0
19 Nate Williams GS 5.4 1.5 1.0
20 LJ Cryer GS 5.2 1.8 0.8
21 Charles Bassey BOS 4.5 6.5 0.6
22 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.9 1.4 0.6
23 Malevy Leons GS 3.6 2.4 0.7
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 2.3 0.4
25 Amari Williams BOS 1.9 2.0 0.4
26 Max Shulga BOS 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.