NBA games

SA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
132–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA39393420132
SAC22253423104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home SAC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 22 18 8 3
Keldon Johnson 20 18 1 1
Julian Champagnie S 24 17 1 1
Harrison Barnes S 22 16 4 3
De'Aaron Fox S 22 15 5 6
Dylan Harper 20 15 4 5
Lindy Waters III 23 11 4 2
Carter Bryant 20 7 3 2
Kelly Olynyk 14 4 6 3
Luke Kornet 19 4 10 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Maxime Raynaud S 42 32 9 3
Nique Clifford S 37 15 8 7
Daeqwon Plowden 28 14 1 1
Doug McDermott 25 12 3 2
Precious Achiuwa S 30 10 7 2
Dylan Cardwell 18 7 8 2
Killian Hayes 19 7 3 4
Russell Westbrook S 25 5 1 10
DeMar DeRozan S 17 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot driving dunk (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Precious Achiuwa SAC
12%
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
8 Nique Clifford SAC
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.1 10.7 4.7
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.4 3.6 5.5
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.4 5.6 8.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.2 3.9 6.8
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.7 4.8 6.3
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC 17.4 10.0 2.1
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC 16.4 8.9 2.0
8 Nique Clifford SAC 14.1 5.3 3.9
9 Dylan Harper SA 12.6 3.3 4.5
10 Malik Monk SAC 12.1 2.0 2.9
11 Julian Champagnie SA 11.6 5.6 1.7
12 Keegan Murray SAC 11.4 3.6 1.6
13 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 10.2 3.3 1.3
14 Devin Carter SAC 10.1 3.4 2.8
15 Keldon Johnson SA 9.6 4.7 1.1
16 Harrison Barnes SA 7.7 2.8 1.7
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.7 7.8 1.4
18 Killian Hayes SAC 6.4 2.5 3.3
19 Carter Bryant SA 6.2 3.6 1.1
20 Luke Kornet SA 4.9 3.8 1.2
21 Doug McDermott SAC 4.9 1.3 0.7
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.4 1.5 0.9
23 Mason Plumlee SA 3.4 3.2 1.2
24 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.1 0.9 0.5
25 Lindy Waters III SA 1.9 0.5 0.5
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.