NBA games

PHI @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
96–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2218312596
DEN38342824124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DEN
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
MarJon Beauchamp 20 16 2 1
Trendon Watford 22 12 3 6
Quentin Grimes S 26 12 2 1
Justin Edwards S 25 11 5 3
Andre Drummond 28 9 10 3
VJ Edgecombe S 23 9 3 4
Dominick Barlow S 27 8 9 4
Dalen Terry 18 8 0 3
Adem Bona S 15 6 3 1
Cameron Payne 18 5 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Christian Braun S 27 22 5 3
Cameron Johnson S 23 18 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 19 12 5 2
Jamal Murray S 26 12 6 4
Bruce Brown 19 12 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 19 9 4 4
Nikola Jokic S 25 8 7 14
Jonas Valanciunas 19 8 9 1
Spencer Jones 24 7 5 0
Tyus Jones 10 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 2-foot layup (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
12%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Quentin Grimes PHI
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
9%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
8 Adem Bona PHI
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
14%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.4 13.0 9.7
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.8 4.4 5.7
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.3 6.1 3.8
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 18.6 4.3 2.9
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.8 5.9 3.6
6 Christian Braun DEN 13.1 5.8 2.7
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.9 2.9 1.9
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 11.9 4.2 2.5
9 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.6 4.0 1.4
10 Cameron Payne PHI 9.1 2.5 2.7
11 Justin Edwards PHI 8.3 2.4 2.0
12 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 7.6 2.8 1.5
13 Bruce Brown DEN 7.5 3.1 2.0
14 Trendon Watford PHI 7.2 3.7 2.2
15 Adem Bona PHI 6.3 5.6 1.3
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.1 7.4 1.8
17 Julian Strawther DEN 6.1 1.6 1.0
18 Spencer Jones DEN 5.8 3.7 1.1
19 Dalen Terry PHI 4.8 2.5 1.7
20 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.7 3.1 1.0
21 Tyus Jones DEN 3.6 0.9 1.8
22 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.9 1.1 1.0
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.7 0.9 0.8
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.8 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.