NBA games

PHX @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
104–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX39242318104
MIN36282824116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIN
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 34 6 3
Oso Ighodaro S 34 16 10 4
Collin Gillespie S 37 12 4 7
Royce O'Neale S 29 9 2 2
Rasheer Fleming 15 9 1 0
Jalen Green S 27 9 1 5
Ryan Dunn 17 7 4 1
Haywood Highsmith 9 3 2 1
Jordan Goodwin 24 3 8 2
Khaman Maluach 12 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 33 32 7 2
Bones Hyland 29 22 2 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 34 19 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 37 16 7 4
Naz Reid 18 11 3 5
Rudy Gobert S 37 9 19 1
Kyle Anderson 25 7 5 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Julius Randle makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
18%
2 Julius Randle MIN
15%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
12%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
9%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Isaiah Livers PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
27%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.9 4.4 4.6
2 Jalen Green PHX 23.1 4.4 3.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 17.6 7.1 4.4
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.8 4.1 2.2
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 12.3 3.2 2.6
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.0 4.1 4.6
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.3 3.8 3.1
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.9 5.3 1.5
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.0 10.1 2.3
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.7 4.2 2.2
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.3 3.6 1.8
12 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.8 6.2 3.1
13 Bones Hyland MIN 7.1 1.5 2.0
14 Haywood Highsmith PHX 7.1 2.7 1.4
15 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.1 3.9 0.8
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.8 3.4 1.5
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.0 3.1 0.8
18 Amir Coffey PHX 4.9 2.1 0.9
19 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.7 3.7 0.6
20 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 4.2 2.6 0.6
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.8 1.3 0.6
22 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.6 1.5 1.4
23 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.5 1.0 0.8
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.4 1.1 0.9
25 Mike Conley MIN 2.3 1.4 1.6
26 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.2 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.