NBA games

CLE @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
123–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE37202838123
MIL24342929116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 34 27 5 6
Evan Mobley S 33 27 15 2
Donovan Mitchell S 34 19 8 3
Sam Merrill S 28 17 6 2
Dean Wade S 25 9 2 2
Keon Ellis 24 8 3 1
Max Strus 23 6 6 4
Thomas Bryant 10 5 0 0
Dennis Schroder 16 3 1 5
Jaylon Tyson 13 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 33 25 3 10
Ryan Rollins S 34 19 3 4
Ousmane Dieng 30 19 5 1
Bobby Portis 33 19 9 4
Pete Nance 30 13 7 1
Taurean Prince S 23 8 2 1
AJ Green 26 6 4 1
Jericho Sims S 16 4 6 0
Kyle Kuzma S 17 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"James Harden makes 24-foot running jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
14%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
10%
6 James Harden CLE
9%
7 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
8 Keon Ellis CLE
7%
9 Ousmane Dieng MIL
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.8 4.2 6.1
2 James Harden CLE 22.0 4.9 8.2
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.8 8.8 2.6
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 17.7 5.3 6.4
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.2 4.7 6.4
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.0 3.5 3.6
7 Bobby Portis MIL 14.6 4.7 1.7
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.5 3.9 1.9
9 Sam Merrill CLE 11.2 2.7 2.1
10 Dennis Schroder CLE 10.7 2.7 5.0
11 Keon Ellis CLE 10.2 3.6 1.8
12 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.9 3.5 0.8
13 Ousmane Dieng MIL 7.8 3.2 2.4
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.9 4.6 1.4
15 AJ Green MIL 6.8 1.9 1.3
16 Jericho Sims MIL 6.6 5.8 1.8
17 Taurean Prince MIL 6.1 2.0 1.0
18 Cam Thomas MIL 6.1 1.2 1.8
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.8 2.0 0.9
20 Pete Nance MIL 3.5 1.6 0.7
21 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 3.2 1.0 0.6
22 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.0 2.1 0.6
23 Gary Harris MIL 2.9 1.3 1.0
24 Riley Minix CLE 2.9 1.4 0.9
25 Tristan Enaruna CLE 2.8 1.2 0.6
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 1.6 0.6
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.3 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.