NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
110–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND34302719110
NY38343331136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 32 16 5 5
Obi Toppin 18 15 3 3
Aaron Nesmith S 24 14 1 0
Kobe Brown S 31 13 5 0
Ivica Zubac S 26 11 7 1
T.J. McConnell S 20 10 3 10
Jalen Slawson 22 8 1 3
Quenton Jackson 18 7 4 5
Ben Sheppard 17 7 5 1
Jay Huff 22 6 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Hart S 26 33 7 5
OG Anunoby S 29 26 8 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 22 11 2
Jose Alvarado S 27 16 2 10
Mikal Bridges S 33 10 4 5
Jordan Clarkson 20 10 2 1
Mitchell Robinson 19 8 8 3
Tyler Kolek 21 3 0 5
Landry Shamet 16 2 1 1
Kevin McCullar Jr. 3 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kobe Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kobe Brown makes 9-foot hook shot (Jarace Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
2 T.J. McConnell IND
12%
3 Jarace Walker IND
12%
4 Ivica Zubac IND
12%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
9%
9 Jalen Slawson IND
9%
10 Jay Huff IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
19%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.8 11.6 3.9
2 OG Anunoby NY 20.0 5.0 2.7
3 Jarace Walker IND 14.4 6.2 3.4
4 Josh Hart NY 12.9 7.9 4.8
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.9 3.1 1.7
6 Ivica Zubac IND 11.5 9.6 1.5
7 Jay Huff IND 11.3 4.5 1.5
8 Mikal Bridges NY 11.1 4.4 2.8
9 Landry Shamet NY 10.8 2.4 1.8
10 Micah Potter IND 9.3 4.2 1.0
11 Quenton Jackson IND 8.6 2.6 2.6
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.3 4.3
13 Kobe Brown IND 7.9 4.0 1.6
14 Ben Sheppard IND 7.6 2.3 1.4
15 Kam Jones IND 7.4 2.3 4.7
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 7.2 1.8 1.0
17 Mohamed Diawara NY 7.0 2.4 1.3
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.7 9.2 1.1
19 Obi Toppin IND 6.2 3.5 1.4
20 Jalen Slawson IND 4.9 3.7 1.6
21 Jose Alvarado NY 4.7 1.8 3.5
22 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 1.0 1.5
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.4 1.0 0.5
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 1.9 1.3 0.5
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.9 2.1 0.5
26 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.9 1.0 0.7
27 Dillon Jones NY 1.8 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.