NBA games

DET @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
130–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET32313730130
WSH32252634117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home WSH
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 31 36 11 2
Daniss Jenkins 21 15 2 7
Tobias Harris S 27 12 6 6
Ronald Holland II 15 11 5 0
Paul Reed 13 10 4 1
Caris LeVert 21 10 3 3
Marcus Sasser 25 9 1 4
Duncan Robinson S 26 8 3 3
Cade Cunningham S 5 6 2 0
Ausar Thompson S 27 6 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bub Carrington S 37 30 4 2
Will Riley S 37 21 3 1
Justin Champagnie S 29 18 9 2
Jaden Hardy 32 16 2 2
Tre Johnson S 24 11 4 1
Tristan Vukcevic 19 9 4 1
Sharife Cooper 27 7 6 6
Jamir Watkins 18 3 2 4
Anthony Gill S 16 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Will Riley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Will Riley makes 14-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
14%
2 Trae Young WSH
11%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Will Riley WSH
10%
8 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
9 Tobias Harris DET
8%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
15%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.9 4.8 11.6
2 Jalen Duren DET 22.1 11.5 2.0
3 Trae Young WSH 20.3 2.6 7.9
4 Will Riley WSH 15.8 4.1 2.9
5 Alex Sarr WSH 15.4 7.9 2.2
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.1 4.6 2.9
7 Tobias Harris DET 13.3 5.2 1.9
8 Jaden Hardy WSH 10.8 2.5 1.4
9 Tre Johnson WSH 10.8 3.4 1.7
10 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.6 3.5 1.7
11 Duncan Robinson DET 10.3 3.1 2.6
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.2 5.3 4.1
13 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.1 4.5 1.7
14 Bub Carrington WSH 9.7 3.1 4.3
15 Ronald Holland II DET 9.5 3.5 1.3
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.1 4.5 1.4
17 Anthony Gill WSH 7.8 3.7 1.9
18 Javonte Green DET 7.5 3.0 1.0
19 Caris LeVert DET 6.6 2.3 1.9
20 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.5 2.3 3.0
21 Kevin Huerter DET 6.4 3.1 1.8
22 Marcus Sasser DET 5.8 1.7 1.8
23 Sharife Cooper WSH 5.6 1.3 1.7
24 Paul Reed DET 5.4 4.7 0.7
25 Tolu Smith DET 3.7 3.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.