NBA games

OKC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
113–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC26253428113
ORL22282929108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home ORL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 40 5 2
Chet Holmgren S 33 20 12 1
Ajay Mitchell S 28 16 2 3
Cason Wallace 23 9 2 1
Jaylin Williams 21 8 6 2
Jared McCain 12 6 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 19 5 2 0
Isaiah Joe 22 5 4 0
Alex Caruso 24 2 8 1
Aaron Wiggins 6 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 32 10 5
Desmond Bane S 36 16 3 1
Jalen Suggs S 33 14 7 6
Tristan da Silva S 32 13 4 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 11 5 3
Jevon Carter 19 11 4 1
Moritz Wagner 13 5 1 0
Jett Howard 20 3 2 1
Jamal Cain 10 3 2 1
Noah Penda 7 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC
9%
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
74%
Jumper
9%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.5 5.2 8.4
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.7 9.4 5.5
3 Desmond Bane ORL 23.3 4.2 5.4
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.4 4.1 4.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 9.7 2.0
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.4 4.0 5.1
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.7 5.6 2.8
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.6 8.0 2.2
9 Jaylin Williams OKC 12.9 7.3 3.1
10 Cason Wallace OKC 11.4 3.8 4.3
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.2 3.1 1.6
12 Jared McCain OKC 9.3 2.2 1.2
13 Jevon Carter ORL 8.3 2.6 2.9
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.2 3.7 1.5
15 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.1 7.6 4.0
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.9 2.8 1.6
17 Alex Caruso OKC 7.5 2.7 1.6
18 Jett Howard ORL 7.0 3.2 1.3
19 Moritz Wagner ORL 6.0 4.2 1.0
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 3.8 0.8
21 Noah Penda ORL 4.3 3.1 1.1
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.1 2.2 0.7
23 Jamal Cain ORL 3.8 1.8 0.7
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.5 1.4 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.