NBA games

MIA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
106–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA24333118106
CHA26333740136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHA
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 31 20 8 5
Norman Powell S 31 17 6 3
Keshad Johnson 20 15 5 1
Pelle Larsson S 28 14 2 0
Simone Fontecchio 24 10 2 1
Kel'el Ware S 28 7 8 1
Kasparas Jakucionis 15 6 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20 6 1 6
Davion Mitchell S 26 4 3 5
Dru Smith 8 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 33 30 6 13
Coby White 20 24 3 3
Kon Knueppel S 24 22 2 2
Brandon Miller S 26 16 2 2
Miles Bridges S 31 14 10 2
Grant Williams 19 8 2 2
Moussa Diabate S 31 8 13 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner 14 6 3 1
Pat Connaughton 2 4 1 0
Sion James 18 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
11%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
9%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
9 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
10 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
15%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 25.8 9.2 3.4
2 Brandon Miller CHA 21.8 6.9 4.1
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.3 4.6 5.0
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.5 4.5 6.1
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.9 4.4 2.9
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 16.1 4.3 4.9
7 Miles Bridges CHA 15.3 4.5 3.0
8 Norman Powell MIA 14.8 2.9 2.3
9 Coby White CHA 14.3 3.6 3.5
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.5 3.8 3.7
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.9 9.6 1.0
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.7 3.2 4.2
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.4 8.8 2.8
14 Grant Williams CHA 8.2 3.7 2.0
15 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.9 3.1 1.8
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.2 2.1 0.9
17 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.2 4.7 0.9
18 Sion James CHA 5.2 2.9 1.5
19 Josh Green CHA 5.1 1.9 1.0
20 Dru Smith MIA 4.2 2.3 1.7
21 Myron Gardner MIA 3.7 3.3 1.0
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.0 1.6 0.4
23 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.8 1.6 0.5
24 Tre Mann CHA 2.6 0.9 0.7
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.1 0.3
26 Jahmir Young MIA 1.8 0.5 0.5
27 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.5 0.9 0.3
28 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.2 1.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.