NBA games

SA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
119–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA29372627119
LAC37153033115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAC
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 36 23 7 8
Victor Wembanyama S 34 21 13 2
Devin Vassell S 35 20 3 4
De'Aaron Fox S 29 18 3 6
Carter Bryant 21 10 5 1
Harrison Barnes 18 8 3 2
Keldon Johnson 22 8 5 0
Julian Champagnie S 29 7 8 1
Jordan McLaughlin 10 3 2 1
Mason Plumlee 6 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 32 25 2 10
Jordan Miller 26 22 9 3
Bennedict Mathurin 34 16 4 3
John Collins S 26 11 9 4
Isaiah Jackson 17 11 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 10 3 1
Kris Dunn S 23 9 2 1
Kobe Sanders 17 5 2 2
Cam Christie 6 3 1 0
Brook Lopez S 24 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Stephon Castle SA
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
9%
5 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
6 Darius Garland LAC
9%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Kobe Sanders LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
23%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.6 10.7 4.2
2 Darius Garland LAC 21.4 2.8 6.4
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.1 4.0 6.5
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 19.1 6.3 2.2
5 Stephon Castle SA 17.8 4.8 7.1
6 John Collins LAC 15.5 6.3 1.6
7 Devin Vassell SA 13.7 4.2 2.7
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.3 4.3 1.6
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.1 5.2 1.8
10 Jordan Miller LAC 10.9 2.9 2.9
11 Brook Lopez LAC 10.6 4.2 1.7
12 Keldon Johnson SA 8.8 4.1 1.2
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.6 4.6 4.3
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.8 2.7 1.6
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.8 2.0 1.4
16 Isaiah Jackson LAC 5.9 4.8 1.1
17 Carter Bryant SA 5.5 3.2 0.9
18 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.7 1.8 1.5
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 1.9 1.3
20 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.2 0.8 1.3
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.0 0.8 0.6
22 Mason Plumlee SA 2.0 3.1 1.0
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.9 1.0 0.4
24 Cam Christie LAC 1.9 0.9 0.4
25 Lindy Waters III SA 1.7 0.5 0.5
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.2 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.