NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
100–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29223217100
HOU2829231292

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 36 6 4
LeBron James S 33 18 5 5
Austin Reaves S 40 15 3 5
Marcus Smart S 36 11 0 1
Jake LaRavia 12 7 4 0
Deandre Ayton S 27 7 11 0
Rui Hachimura 23 6 3 0
Jaxson Hayes 12 0 0 0
Luke Kennard 17 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 40 22 8 0
Amen Thompson S 41 19 12 5
Kevin Durant S 37 18 5 2
Reed Sheppard 31 11 0 3
Clint Capela S 26 9 8 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 24 8 2 4
Tari Eason S 33 5 9 3
Josh Okogie 8 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Clint Capela makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
15%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
12%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
7 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
8 Tari Eason HOU
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU
7%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
27%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 29.5 8.5 8.1
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.2 6.2 4.6
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.2 8.0 5.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.9 4.3 5.4
5 LeBron James LAL 20.3 5.2 6.4
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 18.9 4.4 4.7
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.6 5.5 2.1
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.2 7.5 1.1
9 Marcus Smart LAL 9.9 2.8 2.6
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.8 2.7 1.1
11 Luke Kennard LAL 9.1 2.6 1.8
12 Tari Eason HOU 7.6 5.8 1.8
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.3 4.3 0.9
14 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.3 3.4 1.6
15 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.2 3.0 1.3
16 Clint Capela HOU 4.6 5.5 1.1
17 Josh Okogie HOU 4.5 2.1 0.9
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.3 1.0 0.8
19 Jeff Green HOU 3.0 1.1 0.6
20 Bronny James LAL 2.8 0.7 0.9
21 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.6 1.0 0.4
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 2.5 2.4 0.7
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.0 0.9 0.4
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.9 1.0 0.3
25 Adou Thiero LAL 1.8 1.3 0.4
26 Isaiah Crawford HOU 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.