NBA games

DAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
111–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26283225111
NO32353626129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NO
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 33 32 8 7
Cooper Flagg S 30 21 7 8
P.J. Washington S 31 18 7 2
Max Christie S 32 12 4 0
Marvin Bagley III 19 9 9 1
Khris Middleton 18 6 4 1
AJ Johnson 12 4 2 1
John Poulakidas 18 3 2 0
Tyler Smith 5 3 1 0
Ryan Nembhard S 25 2 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 29 27 4 1
Saddiq Bey S 35 23 6 3
Trey Murphy III S 33 17 7 7
Jeremiah Fears 25 17 6 5
Karlo Matkovic 20 13 10 1
Herbert Jones S 29 10 3 4
Derik Queen 21 9 6 2
Jordan Hawkins 2 5 2 0
Jordan Poole 18 4 1 2
Yves Missi S 28 4 10 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes driving layup (Saddiq Bey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
19%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
4 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
5 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
10 Ryan Nembhard DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
16%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.3 6.9 5.9
2 Dejounte Murray NO 23.2 6.0 6.1
3 Trey Murphy III NO 21.2 4.7 5.5
4 Zion Williamson NO 21.0 6.1 3.5
5 Saddiq Bey NO 19.8 5.4 3.4
6 Naji Marshall DAL 18.0 4.5 4.3
7 Brandon Williams DAL 14.9 4.2 3.6
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.8 3.7 4.0
9 P.J. Washington DAL 13.5 6.8 2.2
10 Khris Middleton DAL 12.8 3.2 2.9
11 Max Christie DAL 11.1 3.2 1.8
12 Herbert Jones NO 10.9 3.8 3.4
13 Marvin Bagley III DAL 9.4 7.1 1.3
14 Jordan Poole NO 8.0 2.6 2.1
15 Derik Queen NO 7.9 5.4 2.8
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.4 4.6 1.4
17 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.2 2.2 3.9
18 Dwight Powell DAL 5.6 4.8 1.1
19 Yves Missi NO 5.3 5.2 0.8
20 John Poulakidas DAL 4.9 2.4 0.8
21 Kevon Looney NO 4.6 6.2 1.3
22 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.6 6.0 0.7
23 AJ Johnson DAL 3.4 1.4 0.9
24 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.4 0.9 0.5
25 Tyler Smith DAL 2.4 1.1 0.6
26 Micah Peavy NO 2.0 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.