NBA games

MEM @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
107–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27302921107
CHI29323635132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward S 24 17 0 5
Jaylen Wells S 23 16 3 1
Taylor Hendricks 21 16 3 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 24 13 3 0
Walter Clayton Jr. S 26 12 2 7
Cam Spencer 16 12 1 7
Tyler Burton 21 8 8 1
DeJon Jarreau 23 5 5 6
Rayan Rupert S 27 3 4 1
Jahmai Mashack 26 3 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 32 29 7 1
Tre Jones S 28 17 5 5
Josh Giddey S 34 16 15 13
Rob Dillingham 27 15 1 4
Guerschon Yabusele 18 13 0 0
Jalen Smith S 27 13 5 0
Leonard Miller S 28 10 7 2
Patrick Williams 20 9 0 2
Nick Richards 13 5 6 1
Yuki Kawamura 12 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Leonard Miller · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Leonard Miller makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
2 Tre Jones CHI
10%
3 GG Jackson MEM
9%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
5 Nick Richards CHI
8%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
6%
8 Leonard Miller CHI
6%
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
6%
10 Rayan Rupert MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
21%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Matas Buzelis CHI 22.9 6.9 3.0
2 Josh Giddey CHI 21.7 8.1 10.3
3 GG Jackson MEM 18.0 6.1 2.3
4 Tre Jones CHI 17.4 3.7 4.3
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.9 3.2 2.0
6 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.4 5.1 1.8
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 12.1 4.5 1.9
8 Jalen Smith CHI 12.1 6.6 1.7
9 Nick Richards CHI 11.9 9.6 1.2
10 Cam Spencer MEM 11.9 3.1 4.3
11 Cedric Coward MEM 11.9 5.8 2.8
12 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 11.8 6.4 2.5
13 Rayan Rupert MEM 10.7 5.2 1.4
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.4 2.8 1.8
15 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 9.8 2.2 6.1
16 Leonard Miller CHI 9.4 4.9 1.4
17 Patrick Williams CHI 9.1 2.9 2.4
18 Rob Dillingham CHI 8.0 3.4 3.7
19 Jahmai Mashack MEM 6.8 3.1 1.7
20 Tyler Burton MEM 4.5 2.8 0.9
21 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.3 2.3 3.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.