NBA games

PHX @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
112–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX32292526112
BOS31342629120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home BOS
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 40 3 6
Jalen Green S 33 21 7 1
Haywood Highsmith 19 16 4 1
Grayson Allen 22 13 1 2
Jordan Goodwin 24 6 5 4
Royce O'Neale S 19 6 2 3
Oso Ighodaro S 33 4 4 8
Collin Gillespie S 23 3 3 1
Khaman Maluach 12 2 3 0
Rasheer Fleming 15 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 40 41 7 6
Jayson Tatum S 32 21 7 4
Derrick White S 29 21 4 5
Payton Pritchard 37 19 4 6
Baylor Scheierman 26 8 5 2
Neemias Queta S 33 5 3 6
Luka Garza 11 3 3 0
Sam Hauser S 23 2 4 2
Hugo Gonzalez 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
10%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
7%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
22%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.4 7.3 6.6
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 22.7 8.1 4.7
3 Devin Booker PHX 22.1 4.3 4.0
4 Jalen Green PHX 20.6 4.1 3.1
5 Derrick White BOS 20.2 5.0 5.6
6 Grayson Allen PHX 18.1 3.4 5.0
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.5 4.1 4.7
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.4 3.8 4.4
9 Neemias Queta BOS 11.5 9.2 1.3
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.7 5.1 2.4
11 Sam Hauser BOS 9.3 4.4 1.4
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.8 3.7 1.6
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.6 5.8 2.5
14 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.3 4.4 2.0
15 Luka Garza BOS 6.1 2.8 1.1
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.1 4.1 1.0
17 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.6 3.4 0.7
18 Haywood Highsmith PHX 4.9 2.1 1.4
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.7 1.6 0.7
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 4.6 3.2 0.8
21 Charles Bassey BOS 4.5 6.5 0.6
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.2 3.7 0.6
23 Amir Coffey PHX 3.8 1.8 0.8
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.6 2.4 0.5
25 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.3 1.5 1.4
26 Amari Williams BOS 2.7 2.3 0.6
27 Max Shulga BOS 2.3 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.