NBA games

POR @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
114–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR35302623114
BKN2021243095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home BKN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 34 18 6 5
Toumani Camara S 32 18 5 2
Scoot Henderson 20 16 1 4
Donovan Clingan S 24 14 11 2
Kris Murray 25 14 3 1
Jerami Grant S 32 12 4 5
Jrue Holiday S 27 11 9 5
Matisse Thybulle 15 5 1 2
Blake Wesley 8 4 0 1
Jayson Kent 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chaney Johnson 25 17 9 1
Tyson Etienne 23 15 2 1
Ben Saraf 24 15 0 4
Nic Claxton S 20 12 11 1
Danny Wolf S 24 8 5 4
Ochai Agbaji 25 8 4 1
Ziaire Williams S 20 7 1 0
E.J. Liddell 26 4 6 2
Nolan Traore S 16 4 1 1
Malachi Smith 18 3 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
14%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
3 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
7 Nolan Traore BKN
8%
8 Danny Wolf BKN
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Drake Powell BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
35%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.6 4.4 3.4
2 Jrue Holiday POR 21.5 4.2 6.5
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.6 3.9 2.7
4 Scoot Henderson POR 16.2 3.6 3.9
5 Deni Avdija POR 16.1 4.9 6.1
6 Donovan Clingan POR 14.9 11.8 3.3
7 Danny Wolf BKN 12.7 6.0 2.8
8 Toumani Camara POR 11.8 4.7 3.1
9 Nolan Traore BKN 10.8 2.6 3.9
10 Nic Claxton BKN 10.7 6.2 3.3
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.9 2.5 1.8
12 Robert Williams III POR 8.4 8.5 1.1
13 Ben Saraf BKN 7.5 2.2 3.5
14 Drake Powell BKN 6.9 2.0 1.3
15 Vit Krejci POR 6.7 3.5 1.8
16 Kris Murray POR 5.9 3.1 1.2
17 Josh Minott BKN 5.8 2.1 0.9
18 Chaney Johnson BKN 5.3 2.9 1.1
19 Ochai Agbaji BKN 5.1 1.8 0.8
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 2.2 1.0
21 Blake Wesley POR 4.9 1.4 1.5
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.9 2.1 1.3
23 Tyson Etienne BKN 4.3 1.3 1.0
24 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.9 1.3 0.5
25 E.J. Liddell BKN 3.5 2.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.