NBA games

GS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
125–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS34303427125
WSH23342931117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home WSH
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis 26 30 5 4
De'Anthony Melton S 30 27 5 4
Gui Santos S 28 18 4 5
Gary Payton II 24 15 6 2
Brandin Podziemski S 28 10 4 3
Pat Spencer 22 10 3 4
Malevy Leons 16 8 2 0
Draymond Green S 29 5 8 7
Omer Yurtseven 2 2 0 1
Nate Williams 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 21 21 2 5
Will Riley S 39 21 4 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 33 21 8 4
Tre Johnson S 23 13 1 2
Julian Reese S 24 12 6 1
Tristan Vukcevic 15 11 2 1
Jamir Watkins 16 6 3 2
Sharife Cooper 13 4 2 1
Bub Carrington 12 4 0 1
Anthony Gill 32 4 8 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Will Riley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Will Riley makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young WSH
9%
2 Kristaps Porzingis GS
9%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
4 Gui Santos GS
8%
5 Will Riley WSH
8%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
8 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
6%
10 Malevy Leons GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
20%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandin Podziemski GS 20.2 7.6 5.3
2 Gui Santos GS 19.0 7.1 5.0
3 Trae Young WSH 17.9 2.7 7.7
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 17.3 4.3 3.4
5 Will Riley WSH 16.0 4.3 2.7
6 Moses Moody GS 15.1 3.6 2.5
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.0 4.8 3.0
8 Kristaps Porzingis GS 13.9 4.4 2.1
9 Gary Payton II GS 12.4 5.0 2.3
10 Jaden Hardy WSH 12.0 2.7 1.5
11 Jamir Watkins WSH 11.9 3.9 1.7
12 Draymond Green GS 11.1 4.6 5.6
13 Al Horford GS 11.1 5.1 3.3
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.6 4.8 1.8
15 Tre Johnson WSH 10.4 3.5 1.8
16 Bub Carrington WSH 10.2 4.1 5.0
17 Julian Reese WSH 9.8 9.8 1.9
18 Pat Spencer GS 9.7 2.8 4.1
19 Quinten Post GS 9.6 5.4 1.9
20 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.5 4.7 1.5
21 Anthony Gill WSH 8.8 3.7 2.4
22 Will Richard GS 7.7 3.2 1.8
23 Nate Williams GS 6.4 2.0 1.1
24 Sharife Cooper WSH 5.9 1.5 1.8
25 Malevy Leons GS 3.8 2.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.