NBA games

ORL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
112–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL21293329112
ATL34333720124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home ATL
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 33 18 10 3
Desmond Bane S 31 18 2 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 17 3 1
Jevon Carter 19 13 3 2
Jett Howard 19 10 1 0
Jalen Suggs S 28 8 6 5
Tristan da Silva S 28 7 2 1
Moritz Wagner 14 7 6 1
Jase Richardson 5 6 0 0
Goga Bitadze 5 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 37 41 7 5
Jalen Johnson S 37 24 15 13
Dyson Daniels S 36 15 12 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 37 15 7 4
CJ McCollum S 32 9 2 3
Jock Landale 11 8 1 2
Jonathan Kuminga 19 7 8 1
Corey Kispert 4 3 0 0
Zaccharie Risacher 10 2 2 0
Mouhamed Gueye 8 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
15%
2 CJ McCollum ATL
10%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
6 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.4 9.1 5.5
2 Desmond Bane ORL 23.4 4.0 5.2
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.4 8.7 7.3
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.9 3.2 4.1
5 CJ McCollum ATL 19.3 4.2 4.1
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.2 3.5 4.7
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.0 7.8 3.1
8 Tristan da Silva ORL 14.5 5.8 2.7
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.5 8.7 2.3
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.0 7.1 5.4
11 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 11.3 5.9 2.3
12 Corey Kispert ATL 9.0 2.5 1.7
13 Buddy Hield ATL 8.8 2.6 1.7
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.7 5.0 1.3
15 Jock Landale ATL 7.4 3.5 1.1
16 Jevon Carter ORL 7.1 2.5 2.4
17 Jett Howard ORL 5.3 2.8 0.9
18 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.2 3.8 0.8
19 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.5 1.2 1.6
20 Noah Penda ORL 3.8 3.0 0.9
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.5 3.0 0.5
22 Jamal Cain ORL 3.5 1.4 0.6
23 Asa Newell ATL 3.4 1.6 0.5
24 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.1 2.9 0.5
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.1 1.1 0.6
26 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.3 1.0 0.6
27 Jase Richardson ORL 1.7 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.