NBA games

GS @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
107–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS35192627107
NY21243827110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NY
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 37 25 5 6
Quinten Post S 35 22 3 3
Gui Santos S 32 20 7 7
Gary Payton II 28 19 6 4
Pat Spencer 23 9 2 4
Will Richard S 29 5 2 1
LJ Cryer 14 3 1 0
Nate Williams 10 2 0 0
Malevy Leons S 20 2 5 2
Omer Yurtseven 13 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 30 1 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 17 12 2
OG Anunoby S 29 14 4 1
Jordan Clarkson 22 14 0 0
Landry Shamet 27 10 1 0
Josh Hart S 31 7 12 5
Mikal Bridges S 21 7 3 2
Jose Alvarado 15 4 1 4
Mitchell Robinson 17 4 10 0
Mohamed Diawara 11 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Josh Hart makes 2-foot reverse layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Kristaps Porzingis GS
10%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
10%
4 Gui Santos GS
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
41%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.7 4.2 9.0
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.7 12.1 3.9
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.6 7.8 4.8
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.4 5.0 2.6
5 Gui Santos GS 17.0 6.4 4.4
6 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.9 4.0 3.0
7 Kristaps Porzingis GS 12.8 4.0 1.8
8 Mikal Bridges NY 12.1 4.4 2.7
9 Josh Hart NY 11.9 7.5 4.4
10 Gary Payton II GS 10.4 3.9 1.9
11 Landry Shamet NY 10.1 2.5 1.8
12 Pat Spencer GS 8.1 2.3 3.7
13 Will Richard GS 6.9 3.0 1.5
14 Mohamed Diawara NY 6.6 2.3 1.2
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.5 8.9 1.0
16 Quinten Post GS 6.4 4.4 1.4
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 5.4 1.9 0.9
18 Nate Williams GS 5.0 1.7 0.8
19 LJ Cryer GS 4.9 1.9 0.8
20 Jose Alvarado NY 4.6 1.8 3.2
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.1 1.2 1.7
22 Malevy Leons GS 3.0 2.0 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 2.4 0.7
24 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.2 1.5 0.6
25 Dillon Jones NY 1.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.