NBA games

POR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
103–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27272227103
PHI30232927109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHI
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 25 6 9
Jerami Grant S 32 20 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 28 11 15 5
Scoot Henderson 24 11 3 2
Vit Krejci 13 9 1 0
Toumani Camara S 31 7 2 5
Robert Williams III 20 6 12 0
Jrue Holiday S 24 5 5 2
Matisse Thybulle 15 5 3 2
Sidy Cissoko 15 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 40 31 3 2
Justin Edwards S 25 21 2 2
VJ Edgecombe S 35 18 12 3
Dominick Barlow S 21 11 3 2
Cameron Payne 20 11 2 1
Trendon Watford 27 7 2 3
Andre Drummond 35 6 17 4
Adem Bona S 13 2 6 0
MarJon Beauchamp 14 2 2 0
Kyle Lowry 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Clingan · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Donovan Clingan makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 VJ Edgecombe PHI
12%
2 Quentin Grimes PHI
10%
3 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
7 Adem Bona PHI
9%
8 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
9 Jerami Grant POR
8%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
36%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.0 4.4 3.3
2 Jrue Holiday POR 21.1 4.4 6.7
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.5 4.0 2.6
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.9 6.0 3.2
5 Quentin Grimes PHI 16.8 4.2 2.7
6 Scoot Henderson POR 16.2 3.6 4.1
7 Donovan Clingan POR 15.1 11.1 2.9
8 Deni Avdija POR 13.8 4.8 5.4
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.0 5.7 2.6
10 Cameron Payne PHI 8.5 2.5 2.4
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.4 3.9 1.2
12 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 8.2 3.1 1.5
13 Trendon Watford PHI 7.6 4.2 2.1
14 Robert Williams III POR 7.6 7.5 1.0
15 Justin Edwards PHI 6.9 2.4 1.7
16 Adem Bona PHI 6.9 5.8 1.4
17 Vit Krejci POR 6.4 3.6 1.8
18 Kris Murray POR 5.7 3.2 1.2
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 2.2 0.9
20 Andre Drummond PHI 4.8 6.0 1.1
21 Blake Wesley POR 4.7 1.5 1.4
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.5 2.2 1.2
23 Tyrese Martin PHI 3.8 1.8 1.1
24 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.0 1.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.