NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
123–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND34313127123
MIL26364032134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 29 32 2 1
Jay Huff 20 16 1 0
Jarace Walker S 30 14 8 6
Obi Toppin 16 11 4 3
Ivica Zubac S 24 10 7 2
Taelon Peter 13 9 0 0
Kobe Brown 25 9 6 5
T.J. McConnell S 28 9 2 11
Quenton Jackson 15 5 3 2
Jalen Slawson S 27 3 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 23 31 14 8
Bobby Portis 27 29 10 3
Ryan Rollins S 37 20 2 7
Taurean Prince 22 13 2 2
Myles Turner S 30 13 4 0
AJ Green S 24 12 2 1
Kyle Kuzma S 36 8 3 8
Gary Harris 22 6 0 1
Jericho Sims 14 2 3 1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Rollins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Kyle Kuzma MIL
12%
3 Jarace Walker IND
12%
4 Ivica Zubac IND
12%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
6 Jericho Sims MIL
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
8 Kobe Brown IND
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
8%
10 Jalen Slawson IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
21%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 25.1 10.4 5.6
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.7 4.9 6.9
3 Jarace Walker IND 16.4 6.9 4.0
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.4 3.7 2.9
5 Bobby Portis MIL 14.7 4.4 1.8
6 Ivica Zubac IND 12.8 11.0 1.8
7 Jay Huff IND 12.3 4.8 1.8
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.0 3.6 1.8
9 Myles Turner MIL 10.8 4.5 1.7
10 Micah Potter IND 10.5 4.8 1.7
11 Kam Jones IND 9.5 2.6 5.4
12 Kobe Brown IND 9.4 4.4 1.6
13 Quenton Jackson IND 9.3 2.6 3.2
14 T.J. McConnell IND 9.0 2.7 4.6
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.1 4.1 1.6
16 AJ Green MIL 7.9 2.0 1.5
17 Jericho Sims MIL 7.8 6.9 2.2
18 Taelon Peter IND 7.8 2.4 1.9
19 Cam Thomas MIL 7.0 1.6 2.0
20 Taurean Prince MIL 6.1 2.4 1.2
21 Jalen Slawson IND 5.5 3.9 2.1
22 Pete Nance MIL 4.7 2.1 1.0
23 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 4.1 1.4 0.7
24 Gary Harris MIL 3.2 1.5 1.1
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.9 1.8 0.7
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.7 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.