NBA games

DET @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
108–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET32321727108
TOR33263426119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home TOR
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 33 3 9
Tobias Harris S 33 21 5 2
Jalen Duren S 37 20 11 0
Caris LeVert 20 9 3 1
Javonte Green 15 8 3 1
Paul Reed 11 4 6 0
Ausar Thompson S 24 4 1 3
Marcus Sasser 12 3 1 2
Kevin Huerter 14 3 1 1
Ronald Holland II 13 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 39 34 1 0
RJ Barrett S 39 27 6 2
Jakob Poeltl S 36 21 18 5
Scottie Barnes S 38 14 10 8
Sandro Mamukelashvili 15 8 5 0
Immanuel Quickley S 34 6 1 7
Jamal Shead 24 4 2 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 12 3 2 0
Jonathan Mogbo 3 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes driving layup (Tobias Harris assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
11%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Tobias Harris DET
7%
10 Javonte Green DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
16%
Layup
55%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.1 5.3 9.7
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.4 5.3 4.9
3 Jalen Duren DET 22.3 10.9 1.8
4 RJ Barrett TOR 20.8 5.9 3.2
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.7 3.5 6.1
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.1 4.9 3.9
7 Tobias Harris DET 11.5 5.7 1.5
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.1 3.0 2.3
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.1 6.7 1.6
10 Ronald Holland II DET 9.4 3.8 1.1
11 Ausar Thompson DET 8.6 5.2 3.4
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 7.9 3.7 1.4
13 Jamal Shead TOR 7.6 2.1 3.4
14 Javonte Green DET 7.1 3.0 0.8
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.9 2.7 1.5
16 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.5 2.4 2.8
17 Kevin Huerter DET 6.4 2.9 1.6
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.1 2.2 1.8
19 Paul Reed DET 6.0 4.9 0.6
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.6 1.6
21 Gradey Dick TOR 4.2 1.4 0.7
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.4 1.6 0.6
23 Tolu Smith DET 2.9 3.0 0.5
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.6 2.4 0.6
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.5 2.1 0.7
26 A.J. Lawson TOR 2.4 1.0 0.4
27 Alijah Martin TOR 2.1 0.7 0.5
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.3 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.