NBA games

DAL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
130–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL35254030130
CLE31282734120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CLE
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 33 27 6 10
Naji Marshall S 32 25 5 7
P.J. Washington S 33 20 11 2
Brandon Williams 24 12 2 5
Ryan Nembhard S 24 11 3 3
John Poulakidas 15 10 3 0
Max Christie S 29 9 2 5
Marvin Bagley III 16 6 5 0
Caleb Martin 8 5 1 0
Khris Middleton 24 5 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 39 26 1 11
Max Strus 23 24 8 1
Evan Mobley S 36 18 11 4
James Harden S 38 13 5 7
Dean Wade S 26 12 5 0
Thomas Bryant 12 10 2 0
Dennis Schroder 22 8 1 6
Keon Ellis S 31 5 5 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 12 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 12-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
5 Max Christie DAL
8%
6 Marvin Bagley III DAL
8%
7 James Harden CLE
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
10 Keon Ellis CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden CLE 23.0 4.9 8.2
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 22.7 7.0 5.3
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.6 4.3 4.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.7 8.4 2.4
5 Brandon Williams DAL 15.6 4.2 4.2
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.5 4.2 3.7
7 Khris Middleton DAL 13.2 3.2 3.0
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.8 6.0 2.0
9 Dennis Schroder CLE 10.8 2.9 5.0
10 Max Christie DAL 10.3 3.0 1.5
11 Keon Ellis CLE 10.2 3.6 1.8
12 Marvin Bagley III DAL 9.8 7.1 1.3
13 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.6 3.9 0.9
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.8 4.3 1.5
15 Caleb Martin DAL 6.3 2.9 1.0
16 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.4 1.9 3.8
17 Dwight Powell DAL 5.3 4.7 1.0
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.3 2.0 0.8
19 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.9 2.4 0.9
20 Riley Minix CLE 3.9 1.8 1.2
21 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.7 1.6 0.7
22 AJ Johnson DAL 3.7 1.5 0.9
23 Olivier Sarr CLE 3.6 2.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.