NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
103–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22312327103
OKC23243336116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 35 32 7 6
Anthony Edwards S 37 19 6 5
Ayo Dosunmu 33 18 4 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 16 9 1
Naz Reid 28 6 4 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 2 3 0 1
Bones Hyland 13 3 0 2
Rocco Zikarsky 2 2 1 0
Jaden McDaniels S 16 2 1 1
Rudy Gobert S 29 2 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 32 21 9 2
Isaiah Joe 21 20 4 0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 20 3 10
Alex Caruso 22 17 2 1
Jared McCain 17 15 0 0
Ajay Mitchell S 27 11 5 3
Jaylin Williams 19 5 3 2
Cason Wallace 25 4 6 7
Luguentz Dort S 18 3 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
8%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Chet Holmgren OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
3%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.0 5.3 9.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.4 5.0 4.8
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.7 4.0 4.5
4 Julius Randle MIN 15.3 7.0 4.0
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.8 4.8 2.4
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.9 8.8 2.2
7 Jaylin Williams OKC 13.5 7.3 3.1
8 Cason Wallace OKC 13.3 3.8 4.8
9 Naz Reid MIN 12.4 5.9 1.6
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.9 3.1 1.9
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.6 3.7 3.3
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.2 11.5 2.1
13 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 10.5 3.1 2.6
14 Jared McCain OKC 9.4 2.4 1.4
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.3 4.1 1.7
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.3 3.1 2.0
17 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.4 6.7 4.4
18 Alex Caruso OKC 7.8 2.7 1.7
19 Bones Hyland MIN 7.1 1.7 2.0
20 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.8 3.5 1.7
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.8 2.3 0.7
22 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 4.1 2.8 0.6
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.3 1.1 0.5
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.3 0.9 0.7
25 Mike Conley MIN 2.3 1.4 1.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.0 0.8 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.