NBA games

SAC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
118–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC33352426118
LAC31232134109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAC
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 27 0 7
Precious Achiuwa S 37 25 13 1
Maxime Raynaud S 30 23 5 2
Daeqwon Plowden 31 15 5 2
Russell Westbrook S 37 12 12 10
Nique Clifford S 35 11 4 4
Doug McDermott 14 3 0 0
Killian Hayes 7 2 3 2
Dylan Cardwell 13 0 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 26 31 6 0
Darius Garland S 30 25 3 7
Bennedict Mathurin 35 24 6 1
John Collins 20 10 3 0
Isaiah Jackson 23 6 8 4
Jordan Miller 23 6 0 2
Kris Dunn S 28 5 6 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 32 2 3 1
Brook Lopez S 22 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Maxime Raynaud · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Maxime Raynaud makes layup (Russell Westbrook assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC
10%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 John Collins LAC
10%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
7 Nique Clifford SAC
6%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
9 Darius Garland LAC
6%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.3 6.1 4.9
2 Darius Garland LAC 22.4 3.0 6.8
3 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 20.0 6.7 2.6
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.6 4.0 5.9
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 16.9 3.6 4.7
6 Maxime Raynaud SAC 16.0 9.5 2.1
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC 15.8 8.8 2.0
8 John Collins LAC 15.7 6.2 1.5
9 Nique Clifford SAC 14.1 5.7 4.3
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 13.3 4.5 1.8
11 Malik Monk SAC 12.5 2.1 3.1
12 Jordan Miller LAC 12.3 3.2 3.2
13 Brook Lopez LAC 12.0 4.7 1.9
14 Devin Carter SAC 10.5 3.6 3.0
15 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 10.1 3.3 1.1
16 Kris Dunn LAC 9.1 4.7 4.6
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 7.3 8.5 1.5
18 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.1 2.1 1.5
19 Isaiah Jackson LAC 6.2 5.4 1.0
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.2 1.8 1.6
21 Killian Hayes SAC 5.1 1.7 2.9
22 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.5 4.0 0.8
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.6 1.1 0.6
24 Norchad Omier LAC 3.2 2.0 0.6
25 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.6 0.9 1.4
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.3 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.