NBA games

DEN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
125–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DEN262437317125
LAL342726319127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAL
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Gordon S 35 27 5 2
Nikola Jokic S 43 24 16 14
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 20 1 3
Cameron Johnson S 43 18 4 3
Christian Braun S 33 12 1 3
Bruce Brown 20 12 4 2
Spencer Jones 23 5 3 0
Jamal Murray S 36 5 6 6
Jonas Valanciunas 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 46 32 7 6
Luka Doncic S 43 30 11 13
Marcus Smart S 35 21 3 2
LeBron James S 40 17 6 5
Deandre Ayton S 27 9 9 2
Rui Hachimura 25 6 4 0
Jaxson Hayes 21 5 4 0
Jake LaRavia 12 4 1 1
Luke Kennard 16 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
8 Christian Braun DEN
7%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
6%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
6%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.0 13.1 10.5
2 Luka Doncic LAL 29.3 8.3 9.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 25.4 4.0 5.3
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.6 4.3 5.6
5 LeBron James LAL 20.8 5.2 6.7
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.1 5.7 3.7
7 Christian Braun DEN 13.6 6.0 2.7
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 11.8 4.1 2.4
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.7 2.9 1.6
10 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.4 7.9 1.2
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 2.7 1.4
12 Luke Kennard LAL 10.1 2.7 2.0
13 Marcus Smart LAL 9.1 2.7 2.9
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.5 4.8 1.0
15 Bruce Brown DEN 7.5 3.2 1.9
16 Julian Strawther DEN 6.9 2.0 1.1
17 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.7 3.5 1.8
18 Spencer Jones DEN 5.7 3.7 1.0
19 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 5.1 3.3 1.0
20 Tyus Jones DEN 4.4 1.4 2.0
21 Drew Timme LAL 4.1 1.8 0.9
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.6 1.3 0.9
23 Bronny James LAL 3.5 1.0 1.2
24 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.3 2.7 0.9
25 David Roddy DEN 3.3 1.6 0.7
26 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.3 1.4 0.7
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 1.8 0.6
28 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.6 1.3 0.7
29 Adou Thiero LAL 2.6 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.