NBA games

CHA @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
102–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA24223719102
SA31283224115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home SA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 34 22 4 2
Kon Knueppel S 32 20 6 3
Coby White 26 18 4 2
LaMelo Ball S 22 17 4 2
Brandon Miller S 33 6 6 3
Josh Green 18 6 1 0
Grant Williams 22 6 3 1
Moussa Diabate S 21 4 5 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner 18 3 3 1
Sion James 14 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 32 12 8
De'Aaron Fox S 35 17 6 4
Stephon Castle S 29 15 7 10
Keldon Johnson 21 13 5 0
Luke Kornet 20 10 8 1
Devin Vassell S 34 9 5 3
Julian Champagnie S 33 9 4 2
Carter Bryant 16 8 4 1
Harrison Barnes 22 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes driving layup (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
6 Luke Kornet SA
9%
7 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
18%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.2 11.0 4.0
2 Brandon Miller CHA 22.7 6.8 3.9
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.8 4.9 6.3
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.3 3.5 6.5
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.1 4.5 2.9
6 Stephon Castle SA 17.4 4.8 7.0
7 Devin Vassell SA 14.8 4.1 2.7
8 Coby White CHA 13.7 3.6 3.9
9 Miles Bridges CHA 13.6 4.5 2.8
10 Julian Champagnie SA 10.7 5.3 1.7
11 Keldon Johnson SA 8.6 4.0 1.1
12 Grant Williams CHA 8.4 4.1 2.3
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.2 8.9 2.4
14 Harrison Barnes SA 8.0 2.5 1.6
15 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.8 5.9 0.9
16 Josh Green CHA 5.7 2.3 1.1
17 Sion James CHA 5.6 3.2 1.4
18 Carter Bryant SA 4.8 2.9 0.8
19 Luke Kornet SA 4.1 3.5 1.0
20 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.8 2.1 0.6
21 Tosan Evbuomwan CHA 3.1 1.3 0.6
22 Tre Mann CHA 2.9 1.0 0.7
23 Mason Plumlee SA 2.7 3.3 1.2
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.4 1.0 0.8
25 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.4 1.4 0.5
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.1 1.0 0.4
27 Lindy Waters III SA 1.9 0.5 0.4
28 Harrison Ingram SA 1.8 1.2 0.3
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.