NBA games

ORL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
121–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL41302723121
MIA27282834117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIA
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 27 8 7
Desmond Bane S 35 21 4 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 15 8 2
Jalen Suggs S 34 14 5 6
Jamal Cain 19 12 7 0
Tristan da Silva S 31 11 8 2
Moritz Wagner 13 7 4 0
Noah Penda 20 7 3 2
Jevon Carter 16 7 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 22 2 7
Norman Powell 31 20 1 3
Bam Adebayo S 38 20 7 1
Pelle Larsson S 35 15 3 3
Davion Mitchell S 26 14 2 4
Kel'el Ware S 27 13 10 1
Tyler Herro S 31 10 6 5
Kasparas Jakucionis 18 3 0 1
Myron Gardner 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
5 Norman Powell MIA
8%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
9 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
40%
Jumper
25%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 27.3 9.1 3.7
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.4 8.8 6.0
3 Desmond Bane ORL 24.7 4.2 5.3
4 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 4.3 4.9
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.2 3.4 5.2
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.8 4.5 4.5
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 14.5 5.4 2.8
8 Norman Powell MIA 14.3 2.9 2.1
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.7 3.7 4.0
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.5 8.8 2.5
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.5 9.6 1.0
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.0 3.6 4.8
13 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 8.3 3.4 2.5
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.3 2.3 1.2
15 Jevon Carter ORL 6.8 2.5 2.6
16 Jett Howard ORL 6.4 3.1 1.2
17 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.6 3.6 0.9
18 Dru Smith MIA 5.4 2.6 2.0
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.1 3.4 0.8
20 Myron Gardner MIA 4.1 3.1 1.2
21 Noah Penda ORL 3.9 3.2 1.0
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.9 1.2 0.4
23 Trevor Keels MIA 2.5 0.8 0.6
24 Jahmir Young MIA 2.0 0.5 0.6
25 Jamal Cain ORL 1.9 0.7 0.5
26 Jase Richardson ORL 1.9 0.8 0.7
27 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.5 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.