NBA games

WSH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
100–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH27143128100
BOS29352918111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home BOS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan Vukcevic 20 22 3 1
Jamir Watkins 24 15 6 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 12 4 1
Jaden Hardy 15 12 3 1
Trae Young S 24 11 4 6
Justin Champagnie 21 10 4 1
Tre Johnson S 24 7 1 2
Will Riley S 29 5 5 3
Alex Sarr S 22 4 5 0
Bub Carrington 22 2 3 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Neemias Queta S 31 24 10 3
Jayson Tatum S 32 20 14 7
Jaylen Brown S 31 16 4 3
Luka Garza 15 15 1 3
Derrick White S 35 15 6 5
Sam Hauser S 26 12 6 2
Payton Pritchard 30 4 4 4
Baylor Scheierman 25 3 9 2
Amari Williams 2 2 1 0
Hugo Gonzalez 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Trae Young WSH
10%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
6 Derrick White BOS
8%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
8 Payton Pritchard BOS
8%
9 Will Riley WSH
8%
10 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
46%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
10%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.7 8.6 8.3
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.0 6.9 4.0
3 Trae Young WSH 21.8 2.5 8.2
4 Derrick White BOS 21.7 4.9 6.5
5 Alex Sarr WSH 17.5 7.5 2.5
6 Will Riley WSH 15.7 4.1 2.6
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.6 4.2 5.6
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.0 4.3 2.7
9 Baylor Scheierman BOS 11.4 5.4 2.7
10 Jaden Hardy WSH 10.9 2.4 1.3
11 Jamir Watkins WSH 10.9 3.3 1.5
12 Neemias Queta BOS 10.7 9.6 1.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 10.6 4.3 1.7
14 Tre Johnson WSH 10.6 3.3 1.7
15 Anthony Gill WSH 10.0 4.1 2.4
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.8 4.8 1.4
17 Bub Carrington WSH 9.8 3.8 4.3
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.5 4.6 1.8
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.8 4.6 1.2
20 Sharife Cooper WSH 6.4 1.4 1.8
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.9 2.1 1.0
22 Luka Garza BOS 5.7 3.1 1.0
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.6 2.9 0.8
24 Amari Williams BOS 2.7 2.3 0.7
25 Max Shulga BOS 2.4 1.2 0.6
26 John Tonje BOS 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.