NBA games

MIL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
99–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL3022262199
ATL31293527122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ATL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 31 22 3 8
Kevin Porter Jr. S 30 18 7 7
Bobby Portis 27 14 6 1
Kyle Kuzma S 24 11 4 1
AJ Green 21 9 2 0
Myles Turner S 24 8 6 3
Jericho Sims S 25 7 2 1
Gary Trent Jr. 14 5 1 0
Pete Nance 15 3 1 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 27 30 3 2
Jalen Johnson S 35 23 10 12
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 20 3 1
Corey Kispert 15 13 4 1
Jock Landale 17 10 6 1
Dyson Daniels S 29 8 7 4
Zaccharie Risacher 20 7 6 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 4 4 4
Gabe Vincent 11 3 0 1
Christian Koloko 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
14%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
13%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
12%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
11%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
8 Corey Kispert ATL
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
8%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
27%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.6 8.3 6.9
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.5 3.3 5.1
3 CJ McCollum ATL 20.0 4.3 4.9
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 17.6 5.9 6.3
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.5 8.6 3.2
6 Ryan Rollins MIL 15.9 5.0 6.1
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.2 3.4 2.7
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.2 7.3 6.0
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.8 4.4 1.4
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.1 5.4 1.5
11 Corey Kispert ATL 9.6 2.9 1.9
12 Buddy Hield ATL 9.5 2.9 1.9
13 Myles Turner MIL 9.0 4.2 1.3
14 Jock Landale ATL 8.2 3.7 1.5
15 Cam Thomas MIL 7.4 1.7 2.0
16 AJ Green MIL 7.0 2.2 1.4
17 Jericho Sims MIL 6.5 6.8 2.0
18 Taurean Prince MIL 6.0 2.0 1.0
19 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.3 1.6 1.8
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.2 3.5 0.7
21 Pete Nance MIL 4.1 2.2 0.8
22 RayJ Dennis ATL 3.6 1.5 1.0
23 Christian Koloko ATL 3.3 3.0 0.5
24 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 2.6 0.8 0.3
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.6 0.8 0.5
26 Keaton Wallace ATL 1.9 0.7 0.5
27 Gary Harris MIL 1.8 0.8 0.7
28 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.4 1.1 0.4
29 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.