NBA games

CHI @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
108–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI28292823108
LAC33302927119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home LAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 30 21 1 2
Josh Giddey S 39 20 11 10
Matas Buzelis S 34 18 11 2
Leonard Miller S 36 14 8 3
Rob Dillingham 24 12 4 4
Guerschon Yabusele 20 11 2 0
Nick Richards S 30 10 8 1
Patrick Williams 23 2 3 1
Yuki Kawamura 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 33 28 4 3
Bennedict Mathurin 28 26 6 2
Jordan Miller 27 14 3 3
Kobe Sanders S 26 11 6 3
Brook Lopez S 31 11 7 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 34 10 6 3
Isaiah Jackson 17 8 7 2
Kris Dunn S 29 8 4 6
Nicolas Batum 16 3 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 Tre Jones CHI
13%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
4 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
5 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
6 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
8 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
9 Leonard Miller CHI
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
5%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.5 6.2 4.9
2 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 20.2 7.0 2.6
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 20.2 6.1 2.7
4 Josh Giddey CHI 18.7 7.2 9.0
5 Tre Jones CHI 14.3 3.4 4.3
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 13.4 4.6 1.9
7 Brook Lopez LAC 12.5 4.9 1.8
8 Jordan Miller LAC 12.0 3.0 3.3
9 Jalen Smith CHI 11.5 6.4 1.6
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.6 6.2 2.4
11 Nick Richards CHI 10.3 8.3 1.1
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.1 2.8 1.7
13 Kris Dunn LAC 9.3 4.8 4.7
14 Patrick Williams CHI 9.2 2.6 2.1
15 Leonard Miller CHI 8.1 4.3 1.2
16 Rob Dillingham CHI 6.8 2.9 3.2
17 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.5 1.9 1.5
18 Isaiah Jackson LAC 5.9 5.1 1.2
19 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.3 1.8 1.7
20 Yuki Kawamura CHI 4.6 2.4 3.2
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.1 2.0 1.2
22 Norchad Omier LAC 3.8 2.3 0.7
23 Cam Christie LAC 2.9 1.4 0.8
24 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.8 1.0 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.