NBA games

UTAH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
114–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH38203125114
POR28382929124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home POR
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 29 31 3 1
Cody Williams S 36 19 7 3
Isaiah Collier S 30 17 3 9
Kyle Filipowski S 25 11 6 5
Elijah Harkless 30 10 4 2
Ace Bailey S 7 8 1 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 20 8 5 1
Andersson Garcia 29 6 3 2
Bez Mbeng 34 4 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 32 25 5 8
Scoot Henderson 30 25 5 3
Donovan Clingan S 35 21 15 2
Deni Avdija S 32 17 6 8
Sidy Cissoko 17 14 4 2
Jerami Grant S 25 9 3 0
Matisse Thybulle 15 6 1 1
Toumani Camara S 23 5 4 3
Vit Krejci 15 2 3 5
Blake Wesley 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ace Bailey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Ace Bailey makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
11%
2 Ace Bailey UTAH
10%
3 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
10%
4 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
9%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
7 Deni Avdija POR
9%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
9%
10 John Konchar UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.4 4.4 3.6
2 Jrue Holiday POR 20.3 4.1 6.5
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.1 4.0 2.7
4 Isaiah Collier UTAH 18.6 3.0 7.3
5 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 17.8 9.2 4.2
6 Ace Bailey UTAH 16.6 5.0 2.3
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 16.2 3.7 2.9
8 Donovan Clingan POR 15.8 10.9 3.6
9 Scoot Henderson POR 14.1 3.3 4.2
10 Deni Avdija POR 13.8 5.0 5.3
11 Toumani Camara POR 12.8 5.4 2.6
12 Cody Williams UTAH 9.7 4.1 2.9
13 Robert Williams III POR 8.3 7.7 1.2
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.9 2.0 1.2
15 Elijah Harkless UTAH 6.5 2.1 2.6
16 Vit Krejci POR 6.4 3.4 1.5
17 Kevin Love UTAH 6.2 5.5 1.7
18 John Konchar UTAH 6.0 4.2 1.8
19 Kris Murray POR 5.9 3.1 1.1
20 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 4.6 3.6 0.8
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.5 2.2 1.0
22 Blake Wesley POR 4.2 1.1 1.6
23 Sidy Cissoko POR 3.3 1.6 0.9
24 Yang Hansen POR 2.1 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.