NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
127–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31383127127
GS28203930117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 42 8 5
Rudy Gobert S 36 18 9 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 15 1 2
Naz Reid 27 12 3 4
Ayo Dosunmu 31 12 8 7
Bones Hyland 11 11 1 1
Julius Randle S 27 10 4 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 7 6 1
Kyle Anderson 15 0 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 36 25 10 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 22 20 4 2
Gui Santos S 35 17 3 8
Gary Payton II 19 12 3 2
De'Anthony Melton S 24 12 2 3
LJ Cryer 19 8 2 0
Pat Spencer 19 7 2 3
Quinten Post 11 7 3 1
Malevy Leons 14 6 2 1
Al Horford S 5 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Gui Santos GS
10%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
9%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Al Horford GS
7%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Will Richard GS
7%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
35%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.7 4.9 4.4
2 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.7 7.9 5.5
3 Gui Santos GS 17.6 6.8 4.1
4 De'Anthony Melton GS 16.7 3.8 3.0
5 Julius Randle MIN 16.4 7.2 4.5
6 Kristaps Porzingis GS 15.2 4.4 2.0
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.8 5.4 2.8
8 Naz Reid MIN 13.1 6.3 1.7
9 Al Horford GS 12.3 5.9 3.7
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.2 3.8 4.1
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 11.8 2.2
12 Draymond Green GS 11.3 4.7 5.6
13 Gary Payton II GS 10.8 4.2 2.1
14 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 10.5 2.8 2.6
15 Pat Spencer GS 8.3 2.3 4.5
16 Seth Curry GS 7.6 1.7 1.5
17 Will Richard GS 7.2 2.8 1.6
18 Bones Hyland MIN 6.6 2.0 2.1
19 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.5 3.6 2.1
20 Quinten Post GS 5.3 4.2 1.3
21 Rocco Zikarsky MIN 4.9 3.2 0.7
22 LJ Cryer GS 4.9 1.7 1.1
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.0 1.6 0.7
24 Julian Phillips MIN 4.0 1.5 0.7
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 4.0 1.3 0.8
26 Malevy Leons GS 2.9 2.1 0.7
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.2 1.2
28 Mike Conley MIN 2.7 1.4 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.