NBA games

CLE @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
138–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE38294130138
DAL21293322105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 23 29 7 2
Donovan Mitchell S 29 24 2 8
James Harden S 29 17 7 7
Keon Ellis S 26 13 3 1
Thomas Bryant 22 11 4 0
Dennis Schroder 21 8 5 6
Jaylon Tyson 20 8 3 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 17 8 2 1
Larry Nance Jr. 7 6 4 1
Craig Porter Jr. 15 5 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 29 25 4 5
Naji Marshall S 27 17 7 3
Max Christie S 27 12 0 0
Brandon Williams 21 12 3 3
Dwight Powell 21 11 11 2
Ryan Nembhard S 27 8 4 9
Klay Thompson 16 6 2 1
Marvin Bagley III S 27 4 4 0
Khris Middleton 17 4 2 1
Caleb Martin 16 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 4-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
18%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
16%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
5 Max Christie DAL
15%
6 James Harden CLE
12%
7 Dean Wade CLE
8%
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE
0%
9 Keon Ellis CLE
0%
10 Larry Nance Jr. CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
23%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.7 7.8 5.4
2 James Harden CLE 22.1 4.8 8.4
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 19.3 3.9 4.2
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.3 8.5 2.3
5 Brandon Williams DAL 16.5 4.3 4.8
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.8 4.2 3.8
7 Khris Middleton DAL 13.6 3.5 3.1
8 Marvin Bagley III DAL 11.2 8.2 1.5
9 Klay Thompson DAL 10.9 2.0 1.6
10 Max Christie DAL 10.8 3.6 1.5
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.7 3.8 1.9
12 Dennis Schroder CLE 10.6 2.6 4.8
13 Keon Ellis CLE 9.4 3.4 1.7
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.7 4.5 1.5
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.6 3.7 0.8
16 Caleb Martin DAL 6.3 3.0 1.1
17 Dwight Powell DAL 4.8 3.8 0.9
18 Ryan Nembhard DAL 4.8 1.7 3.3
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 2.3 3.3
20 AJ Johnson DAL 3.7 1.6 0.9
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.2 1.8 0.5
22 Tristan Enaruna CLE 3.0 1.1 0.4
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.9 1.9 0.6
24 Riley Minix CLE 2.7 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.