NO @ HOU
NBA
Toyota Center (Houston)
·Final
105–107
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 24 | 25 | 23 | 33 | 105 |
| HOU | 28 | 29 | 23 | 27 | 107 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
HOU
65%
35%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray S | 31 | 35 | 7 | 4 |
| Zion Williamson S | 34 | 21 | 5 | 1 |
| Trey Murphy III S | 37 | 14 | 6 | 7 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 13 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Herbert Jones S | 35 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 22 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| Yves Missi | 25 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Saddiq Bey S | 30 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Derik Queen | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Dejounte Murray ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Amen Thompson
HOU
15%
2
Alperen Sengun
HOU
13%
3
Dejounte Murray
NO
11%
4
Jabari Smith Jr.
HOU
10%
5
Kevin Durant
HOU
9%
6
Zion Williamson
NO
9%
7
Saddiq Bey
NO
9%
8
Herbert Jones
NO
9%
9
Tari Eason
HOU
8%
10
Trey Murphy III
NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
20%
Layup
42%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Durant | HOU | 25.5 | 6.2 | 5.2 |
| 2 | Alperen Sengun | HOU | 22.4 | 9.0 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 22.2 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| 4 | Zion Williamson | NO | 21.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 |
| 5 | Amen Thompson | HOU | 21.5 | 8.0 | 5.3 |
| 6 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 20.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 |
| 7 | Dejounte Murray | NO | 20.7 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| 8 | Reed Sheppard | HOU | 20.0 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| 9 | Jabari Smith Jr. | HOU | 16.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 |
| 10 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 13.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| 11 | Herbert Jones | NO | 10.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| 12 | Derik Queen | NO | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| 13 | Tari Eason | HOU | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 |
| 14 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 |
| 15 | Jordan Poole | NO | 7.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| 16 | Tristen Newton | HOU | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 17 | Dorian Finney-Smith | HOU | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 18 | Yves Missi | NO | 5.5 | 4.9 | 0.8 |
| 19 | Josh Okogie | HOU | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 20 | Clint Capela | HOU | 5.0 | 5.4 | 1.1 |
| 21 | DeAndre Jordan | NO | 4.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Aaron Holiday | HOU | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 23 | Jeff Green | HOU | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 25 | Kevon Looney | NO | 2.9 | 5.2 | 0.8 |
| 26 | Micah Peavy | NO | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.