NBA games

PHX @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
115–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28343023115
TOR30292736122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home TOR
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 35 34 5 4
Devin Booker S 34 31 3 0
Grayson Allen 29 15 2 6
Rasheer Fleming 23 9 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 18 8 4 1
Royce O'Neale S 28 6 6 4
Oso Ighodaro S 24 5 6 0
Haywood Highsmith 19 5 1 2
Khaman Maluach 4 2 1 1
Collin Gillespie S 26 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 39 36 7 3
RJ Barrett S 35 22 6 5
Immanuel Quickley S 38 17 4 1
Scottie Barnes S 31 14 6 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 25 12 4 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 9 8 1
Jakob Poeltl S 21 6 6 1
Jamal Shead 25 6 2 8
Jamison Battle 9 0 1 1
Jonathan Mogbo 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Layup (2 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
15%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
24%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.0 5.7 4.9
2 Jalen Green PHX 20.4 4.3 3.3
3 Grayson Allen PHX 20.1 3.4 5.3
4 Devin Booker PHX 20.0 4.1 4.3
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.2 3.3 6.2
6 RJ Barrett TOR 18.5 5.8 2.7
7 Scottie Barnes TOR 17.2 5.0 3.6
8 Collin Gillespie PHX 15.1 4.7 5.0
9 Oso Ighodaro PHX 9.8 6.8 2.8
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.3 4.1 1.7
11 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.3 6.6 1.4
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.2 4.7 2.0
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 7.5 3.6 1.4
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.9 2.3 3.2
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 6.9 2.8 1.4
16 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.8 3.5 0.8
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.5 3.6 1.0
18 Amir Coffey PHX 4.9 2.3 1.0
19 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.9 4.2 0.6
20 Gradey Dick TOR 4.6 1.7 0.7
21 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.5 2.1 1.6
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.2 1.7 0.5
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 3.1 2.7 0.6
24 Alijah Martin TOR 2.5 1.0 0.5
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.4 2.2 0.6
26 A.J. Lawson TOR 2.2 1.1 0.3
27 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.