NBA games

MEM @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
110–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM35262326110
DET37313028126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DET
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Javon Small 23 23 3 3
Ty Jerome S 25 21 1 3
Cam Spencer S 30 19 2 5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 22 17 1 1
Taylor Hendricks S 30 7 5 0
Cedric Coward S 25 7 3 2
DeJon Jarreau 24 6 7 3
Tyler Burton 27 4 5 1
Taj Gibson 12 3 3 0
Jahmai Mashack 23 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 28 30 13 0
Cade Cunningham S 30 17 8 15
Marcus Sasser S 22 16 3 2
Duncan Robinson S 24 14 6 4
Ronald Holland II 17 12 4 1
Kevin Huerter 24 11 5 2
Isaiah Stewart 20 10 4 1
Javonte Green S 21 6 1 2
Caris LeVert 23 4 1 2
Daniss Jenkins 21 4 4 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Olivier-Maxence Prosper · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 2-foot layup (Cedric Coward assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Jaylen Wells MEM
13%
4 Ty Jerome MEM
11%
5 Duncan Robinson DET
11%
6 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
10%
7 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
8 Marcus Sasser DET
9%
9 Javon Small MEM
8%
10 Taylor Hendricks MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
14%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.0 5.3 10.7
2 Jalen Duren DET 22.8 11.5 2.2
3 Ty Jerome MEM 20.4 3.4 5.9
4 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.5 3.2 1.9
5 Javon Small MEM 13.3 4.2 4.7
6 Cedric Coward MEM 12.6 5.6 2.8
7 Duncan Robinson DET 12.1 3.0 2.7
8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 11.5 4.8 1.7
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM 11.5 5.4 1.8
10 Ronald Holland II DET 10.1 4.6 1.3
11 Cam Spencer MEM 10.0 2.8 3.8
12 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 9.7 2.2 6.0
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.5 4.4 1.6
14 Paul Reed DET 8.3 6.0 0.8
15 Jahmai Mashack MEM 8.0 3.3 1.6
16 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.9 2.4 2.3
17 Javonte Green DET 6.8 3.1 0.9
18 Kevin Huerter DET 6.1 2.7 1.8
19 Caris LeVert DET 5.6 1.8 1.7
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.5 1.5 1.9
21 Tyler Burton MEM 3.9 2.2 0.7
22 Isaac Jones DET 3.7 1.6 0.7
23 Tolu Smith DET 3.5 3.2 0.6
24 Bobi Klintman DET 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.