NBA games

CHI @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
130–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI26363632130
LAL26414134142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home LAL
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 40 27 8 15
Matas Buzelis S 35 22 6 1
Tre Jones S 32 18 4 6
Leonard Miller S 31 15 9 1
Nick Richards 26 15 4 1
Jalen Smith S 30 14 4 0
Rob Dillingham 29 12 5 7
Yuki Kawamura 10 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 51 10 9
Austin Reaves S 39 30 5 7
Deandre Ayton S 37 23 10 1
LeBron James S 33 18 7 7
Rui Hachimura S 40 15 1 1
Luke Kennard 20 3 1 2
Drew Timme 4 2 2 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 0 2 1
Jake LaRavia 21 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three pointer (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
6 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
8 Leonard Miller CHI
8%
9 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.1 8.4 8.2
2 Austin Reaves LAL 20.1 4.5 5.0
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 20.1 6.4 3.1
4 LeBron James LAL 18.5 4.8 6.0
5 Josh Giddey CHI 16.7 7.0 8.0
6 Collin Sexton CHI 15.1 2.5 2.3
7 Tre Jones CHI 13.5 3.3 4.3
8 Jalen Smith CHI 11.4 6.8 1.6
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.8 3.0 1.4
10 Luke Kennard LAL 10.7 3.0 1.8
11 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.5 6.4 2.4
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.0 2.8 1.7
13 Deandre Ayton LAL 9.9 8.1 1.1
14 Nick Richards CHI 9.6 8.7 1.1
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.1 3.7 1.7
16 Leonard Miller CHI 6.3 3.6 0.9
17 Rob Dillingham CHI 6.2 2.7 2.7
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.2 3.2 0.9
19 Drew Timme LAL 4.2 1.9 1.0
20 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.4 1.3
21 Kobe Bufkin LAL 4.0 1.8 0.7
22 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.4 2.2 3.1
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.3 1.8 0.7
24 Adou Thiero LAL 3.2 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.