NBA games

BOS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
102–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28312419102
OKC27292424104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home OKC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 41 34 6 7
Payton Pritchard S 39 14 4 4
Hugo Gonzalez 28 11 5 1
Baylor Scheierman S 34 11 7 5
Jordan Walsh 13 8 3 1
Sam Hauser S 27 8 4 1
Luka Garza 21 7 4 0
Ron Harper Jr. 12 5 1 1
Neemias Queta S 27 4 10 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 35 6 9
Ajay Mitchell S 30 15 4 6
Chet Holmgren S 28 14 9 0
Jaylin Williams 20 9 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 15 9 3 0
Alex Caruso 23 7 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 29 6 6 1
Cason Wallace S 31 4 3 3
Jared McCain 12 3 1 0
Isaiah Joe 13 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Payton Pritchard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Payton Pritchard makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
4 Derrick White BOS
11%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
11%
6 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
7 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
8 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
9 Isaiah Joe OKC
8%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
29%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.9 5.1 8.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.8 7.8 6.8
3 Derrick White BOS 20.1 4.7 6.1
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.9 3.7 3.9
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.1 4.0 5.6
6 Cason Wallace OKC 13.5 3.7 4.9
7 Jaylin Williams OKC 12.5 7.2 2.9
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.5 3.3 1.9
9 Chet Holmgren OKC 11.3 7.6 1.7
10 Jared McCain OKC 10.4 2.6 1.4
11 Neemias Queta BOS 9.9 8.8 1.2
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.6 4.2 1.5
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 9.6 4.5 2.1
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 3.6 1.7
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.9 3.0 1.8
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.3 2.1 1.3
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.7 4.3 0.9
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.2 1.9 0.9
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.1 2.3 0.9
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.8 3.0 0.6
21 Luka Garza BOS 4.4 2.5 0.9
22 Amari Williams BOS 2.7 2.3 0.6
23 Max Shulga BOS 2.2 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.